Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[jbsliverer]

Mother Nature coming for you Dex and everybody else of course.

The Western MDR disturbance everyone is watching for tropical development pretty much just ate through that strong dusty/dry Saharan Air Layer for breakfast. Now the dry airmass is gone and convection is firing up. pic.twitter.com/kJRrRuvQNI

— Mike Ventrice (@MJVentrice) July 31, 2024

https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/sciadv.adn6106

Saharan dust, transported across the Atlantic Ocean by trade winds, is the predominant aerosol type during summer and early fall over the tropical Atlantic (17). It can efficiently alter atmospheric radiative fluxes in both shortwave and longwave bands and participate in cloud formation by serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and/or ice nuclei (IN) (18). It has been reported that Saharan dust tends to suppress the formation of tropical cyclones via a cooling effect on SST that consequently cuts the energy supply for TCs (19, 20). This phenomenon was evident during the peak of European air pollution in the 1970s and 1980s, which is believed to have amplified the Sahel dust emissions due to the prevalent drought conditions. This intensified dust transport coincided with a noticeable downturn in Atlantic hurricane activity (8). Another study (21) has highlighted a close association between the North Atlantic’s dust and considerable spatial shifts in factors such as zonal wind shear, midlevel moisture, and SST. However, they found a minimal correlation between dust optical depth (DOD) and the Atlantic’s accumulated cyclone energy. As Saharan dust-laden air masses move westward, they can introduce dry and stable air into the tropical environment. This dry air inhibits the moisture and convection required for tropical cyclone formation. Moreover, by blocking solar radiation from reaching the surface, dust can reduce SST. The dust effects on TCR can be more complicated and multifaceted.

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