Thanks MMS.
It's really hard to make any sort of evaluation of gameplan or timeframe on this one. I'll give you my *thoughts*, but that's all it is.
Denner is in a unique position where he has complete control of the board and the company. That is unusual, so it's not your typical "gameplan". Despite what some people have said over the past several months, I don't think Denner is going to "just dump it for 2 bucks". That is what people WANT so they can be done with this. But it has no basis in reality. If you look at the numbers, I can't think of any scenario where Vascepa is worth less than $5 a share. And even that is on the far low-end of reasonable ($5/share implies roughly $450-500M in PEAK revenues).
I think Denner needs a big win out of this one. His portfolio is sucking wind, and the majority of his holdings are in larger companies right now, so there's not a ton of upside there. But he has the opportunity to blow the doors off things with a big win with Amarin.
A reasonable starting point would be $10/share (IMO). That implies roughly $1B in PEAK worldwide revenues. I think that is very attainable for a BP. VERY attainable. But this does not really consider upside from anything beyond what we have in the U.S., plus China, EU and some little revenue in the RoW. If they find a way to re-capture the U.S. market, either through litigation or a new formulation, then all bets are off, and the number should go up from there.
But as it stands, I think $10-15 seems attainable. And I think the longer it takes, the stronger likelihood of a bigger number. If Denner thinks he can't get more than 5 bucks, he's not holding this thing for 3 more years. He's dumping it. But if he thinks he can get $10-15 (or more), then he can be patient and let those compound returns accumulate until the time is right.
I don't think anything will happen until there is more clarity on European approvals in Italy, France, and possibly Germany. They need to get those across the finish line. Amarin rolling out Vascepa on their own exposed the weakness across the globe, so now BP's that may have been champing at the bit in 2019 or far more reluctant to pursue Amarin until/unless they have assurances that they can actually get paid in the biggest countries they want to be in.
As far as litigation, I don't think they will wait for that. The litigation against Hikma could take 3 years, 5 years, 10 years. No way of knowing (unless there is something they already know). The GSK/Teva case has taken 10 years, and it's still not done. If we find a way to settle (favorably), in the next year or two, then that would be icing on the cake.
If I had to bet, I would say a sale happens late 2025 or into 2026. But that's also without knowing much of anything that is going on internally. I think the biggest clue that something is starting to happen will be when/if we see a flurry of activity (PR's, etc.) and rapid price growth. But while we still linger around a buck or less, nothing is happening.
AI
