I'll be frank, I haven't retraced today's movement yet, as after-hours do play a significant role in the open market, contrary to popular belief. The algorithms still work after the closing bell.
Fundamentals of company valuation didn't drive this rally, else it would have rallied after earnings on decent reports and not prior to it. Pricing Trends, those fundamentals drove this. Timing towards earnings, above the annual trend line, this part is market maker driven in my final belief. They allowed it to run before beating it back down to earth. It's in their best interests to let it run even more if Tuesday surprises everyone. Except the influence that it gives to an individual who is very much opposed to institutions... that still can't be weighed out of the equation.
Given the very poor outlook Musk gave for 2024, in prior earnings calls, a beat is beyond comprehensible to me, which is why I have "my hat" on the dinner plate if I'm wrong. September now for "soonest fed rate cut talks." So much for June right? Lol. At this speed it might be October. Rate adjustment matters in consumer spending for very big purchases: houses and cars. So easily Tesla's profitability placates to this.
Regardless even a meager earnings beat at $0.61 EPS, isn't "great." It will have to be a 25% beat if they want to shake the market. And go beyond $300.
That's with noting the broader chip pullback, Biden stepping down, and Musk supporting the anti-institution, anti-EV candidate.
There's a lot of factors at play. Most of them aren't good for the sake of Fundamentals when tech stocks pricing works on Forward P/E value. With Tesla having the history of absurdly high Forward P/E, it's reasonable to still sit at 178 average pps by August 2026.
