Every single analyst and brokerage firm has declared RATE CUTS are a guarantee THIS YEAR! OK they do declare no earlier than September and they even say it is more likely at end of year, but it will happen, and it will be in 2024. I wonder why they ALL insist in happen in 2024? The same reason they begged for rate cuts for over a year now. They want the tapped-out consumer, debt ridden, to find excuses to spend and increase their debt.
A shocking argument is being made and has been for a long time now. What if every single assumption on disinflation continuing is wrong. What if we do have cyclical patterns that CAN NOT be altered.
China is finally getting its act together and will open up the spigot to see a surge in economic growth. In July, a delay of 6 months, they plan on announcing a big economic strategy not seen for decades. the other 2 instances saw huge economic expansion. Their housing and real estate market is still a mess, but manufacturing is already expanding at a pace that exceeded expectations. They can exacerbate inflation with their push to stimulate internally.
Now add the obvious economic strategy of TRUMP. In fact many of the brokerage firms are already predicting that rate cuts MUST be done BEFORE Trump enacts his plans. He will explode debt and spending while cutting taxes especially for the top tier. His inflationary measures WILL BE SEEN BNY WALL STREET before they actually take place. The combination of Trumps revenge announcements and policy to reward the wealthy and try to maintain spending to satisfy his base will result in a HUGE Inflationary expansion. I have no doubt that the Financial Industry will immediately react negatively to such a positive announcement. He will in affect stimulate the economy with massive debt and widen to unheard of levels the disparity between classes. His combination of dictatorlike punishment to states and individuals while promising rate cuts lower taxes and higher spending is a recipe that FINALLY breaks our backs.
He will accomplish two things on November 5th. the result: Disaster for Wall Street. WHY? Simple. the proven result of such planned measures is a given. it will destroy our economic foundation. All within 6 months of initiation. Inflation will mushroom and debt will become so intolerable that creditors start panicking. I have faith that GREED is the overriding factor to the stock market's performance. They don't care if Putin becomes our leader as long as the economic engine is strong. The policies on Nov. 5th if i am correct in my assumption, will have a shock wave affect. I expect the smart money will cause a decent drop in the market immediately after his announcement. The smarter the crowd the more likely the crash. In today's world only 50% of us see Trump as a danger.
I will know just how delusional Wall Street behaves the day after November 5th. It should understand the immediate threat and react. BUT I could very well be wrong on timing yet again.
