S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 29, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 3 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower making it an outside reversal to the downside warning that a further decline is possible. Our projected support for tomorrow's closing lies at 544387. Therefore, the closing below the previous low creates an outside reversal to the downside which was a very sharp swing of 1.31%. Volatility notwithstanding, the market finished on the weak side. This market is trading still positive toward the upper band of the monthly trading range and it is currently trading below last month's high warning we could have a temporary high on a monthly basis. Up to this moment in time, the market remains neutral on the momentum indicator yet bearish on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bullish. This market is also trading above the bank of eight moving average indicators also suggesting it is still above underlying support at this moment.

During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 543846 settling at 548287. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 545995 which we penetrated intraday but we closed back above that level finishing at 546048 implying the market is still basing sustaining above the last low for now. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 544206. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 545112 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 545995
Previous... 543846
Tomorrow... 544206

This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 550553 while it has exceeded that level intraday. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Prominently, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 544759 and overhead resistance forming above at 547132. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 24th at 552364, which was up 35 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 552364 to 544656. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 552364 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 552364. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 551730 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 479120 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in October 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 485340 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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