Alternative Path

[gdl]

*** A timeline and fundamental assessment of market movement and inflation between now and middle of September. ***

How this market movement is predictable. July 31, we have the Fed Meeting. it will LIKELY (NOT) include rate cuts and the street will be expecting none. the rally continues. I suspect August and September data over the 6 to 7 weeks between Fed meetings will show signs of a disturbing nature. Inflation will not only be stubborn to come down it is likely to show a buildup of pressure. Sept.18 the street will be DESPERATE to see rate cuts regardless of the data points. Perhaps 50% expect rate cuts and the street will not be happy if it doesn't materialize. In this scenario we have a correction between mid-Sept. and early November.

On the off-chance inflation does cool further and the FED actually lowers rates in September a rally will push the trajectory even steeper. Till November 5th that is. Any data point in the interim 7 or 8 weeks from early September to election should add the possibility of a crash with spiking inflation.

I ONLY present TWO scenarios out of hundreds and have simplified the options because of my adamant stance that Nov.5 will be historic in all aspects of our lives. Perhaps i believe wrongly that a major all-encompassing event will unfold at the same moment. Perhaps there is no real design on how things play out. Perhaps it is my imagination that dramatic changes have to be coordinated.

we shall find out soon enough.