Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

The ADL Non-factor.

Wow. Greatly appreciate your insight [on the blarcamesine ADL metric....]

Thank you.

In all honesty, when I first saw that blarcamesine ADL p-value, as discrepant as it was compared to the other three, I thought that it probably disqualified the drug from ever being approved by the FDA. The other three p-values were way below the required p=0.05 threshold of statistical significance and therapeutic validity. But blarcamesine utterly failed the ADL test. The numbers don't lie.

When I first saw it I tried to figure out what this "ADL" phenomenon was. Researchers, for convenience, like to use acronyms. A lot easier to state throughout a report "ADL" instead of "activities of daily living." But retail stock equity investors don't know the language or acronyms of CNS disease research. So, I looked up the acronym.

"Activities of daily living." Being able to dress oneself, to eat, attend to personal cleanliness, etc. are all extremely important. Failure to properly attend to ADLs makes one an invalid.

But read the descriptions of Alzheimer's symptoms. ADLs are mentioned far down the list. Essentially, Alzheimer's diminishes cognition, the ability to think and speak, the things the three successful metrics of the blarcamesine trial excelled at.

So, blarcamesine will not be intended to target or treat patients with advanced stages of Alzheimer's, where the activities of daily living (ADLs) are already diminished and compromised. Just the opposite. With the number of new tests for early-stage Alzheimer's, even before any real symptoms can be perceived (the prodromal test factor --- detection before symptoms even begin to be perceived) the Anavex drug will have its greatest impact on the global Alzheimer's disease problem.

I anticipate, soon enough, that late middle age or early elderly patients will commonly be administered prodromal ("before symptoms") Alzheimer's tests. "Mrs. Smith, we have some bad news. Your test results came back and they show that you are going to come down with Alzheimer's disease. But, so fortunately, we now have a drug, blarcamesine, that will prevent the disease from progressing. Here is your prescription for the drug. It will allow you to be free of Alzheimer's symptoms in the years going forward."

How will the Alzheimer's Association and its members respond when they learn of these, blarcamesine's real clinical trial results?