S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 22, 2024

NASDAQ Composite Index Cash closed today at 1768936 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's settlement of 1501135. As of now, this market has been rising for 7 months going into June suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 1793679 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 1555764. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 1703266.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 1763636 and overhead resistance forming above at 1793599. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 17th at 1793679, which was up 34 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 1793679 to 1762057. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 1793679 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 1513417 and 1799865. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 1793679. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 1801224 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 1508882 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 14 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1520870 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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