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Saturday, June 15, 2024 10:08:04 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | June 15, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 111.4k, up 46.4k.
Several times in the last several weeks or months, equity bears fell short of capitalizing on potentially bearish technical setups. After four weeks of strength post-last October’s low, a long-legged doji showed up on the weekly four weeks ago, followed by a weekly hanging man. The latter candle in particular was not confirmed as bulls put up a strong show in the subsequent two weeks, with this week up 1.6 percent and last week 1.3 percent.
Bears yet again have an opportunity. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 posted a new intraday high of 5447 but only to close at 5421, resulting in a daily shooting star. This was followed by back-to-back buying pressure that showed up just north of 5400, forming a hanging man on both Thursday and Friday, ending the week at 5432.
If weakness develops this week, this would have come after seven out of eight weeks of unrelenting rally. Last October, the large cap index bottomed at 4104.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net short 8k, up 10k.
On the back of Apple (AAPL)’s strong performance, the Nasdaq 100 had yet another strong week, up 3.5 percent to 19660, for a bullish marubozu weekly candle. This was the second consecutive up week – and 7th in the last eight. From last October’s low through Friday’s high (19665), the tech-heavy index surged 39.9 percent – and 88.3 percent from the October 2022 low of 10441!
History has shown us time and again that bubbles only get bigger until some catalysts act as a pricking pin. For now, tech bulls seem to be sitting pretty, even though some of the moves defy logic. AAPL’s 7.9-percent jump – was up 11.8 percent at Wednesday’s high – breaking out of $197 resistance was one such event this week. It is a $3-trillion-plus company and is a stock followed by nearly every major brokerage house. Not a biotech company, for instance, that suddenly achieves a major milestone and the stock reacts, AAPL’s business is well known. A double-digit move in a single week in a stock like this is a sign of the ebullient times.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 38.3k, up 3.9k.
For the second consecutive week, small-caps diverged with red-hot large-caps. The Russell 2000 gave back one percent this week, coming on the heels of last week’s 2.1-percent downdraft.
It was a wild week, with a high of 2089 (Wednesday) and a low of 1999 (Friday), closing at 2006 – near the weekly low and at/near dual support.
The small cap index has been trading within a descending channel since May 15th when it tagged 2112; Friday’s low tested that support. The index has also traded above 2000 since early May.
Repeated failure at 2100 since early March raises the odds 2000 will be compromised sooner than later. If this scenario comes to pass, then breakout retest at 1900 is just a matter of time. The Russell 2000 broke out of that level last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 5k, up 126.
Last week, a rising trendline from last December when the US dollar index bottomed at 100.32 was breached intraweek but saved by the end. This occurred again this week as Wednesday’s low of 104.23 would have breached that support but only for bids to show up on time to push the index up 0.3 percent to 105.17.
In the end, dollar bulls managed to save both the trendline in question and horizontal support at 103-104, which goes back to December 2016.
VIX: Currently net short 48.4k, up 7.2k.
VIX dropped as low as 11.88 intraday Thursday, although it did not undercut the May 23rd low of 11.52. When it was all said and done, the volatility index rallied 0.44 points to 12.66 for the week. This does not happen often – going hand to hand with the S&P 500, that is. The two tend to go in opposite directions.
Going back six years, volatility bulls have repeatedly defended 12, and this seems to be happening again. This is taking place at a time when traders are aggressively snapping up calls; the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio produced readings of 0.50s in six of the last seven sessions.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | June 15, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of June 11, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 111.4k, up 46.4k.
Several times in the last several weeks or months, equity bears fell short of capitalizing on potentially bearish technical setups. After four weeks of strength post-last October’s low, a long-legged doji showed up on the weekly four weeks ago, followed by a weekly hanging man. The latter candle in particular was not confirmed as bulls put up a strong show in the subsequent two weeks, with this week up 1.6 percent and last week 1.3 percent.
Bears yet again have an opportunity. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 posted a new intraday high of 5447 but only to close at 5421, resulting in a daily shooting star. This was followed by back-to-back buying pressure that showed up just north of 5400, forming a hanging man on both Thursday and Friday, ending the week at 5432.
If weakness develops this week, this would have come after seven out of eight weeks of unrelenting rally. Last October, the large cap index bottomed at 4104.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net short 8k, up 10k.
On the back of Apple (AAPL)’s strong performance, the Nasdaq 100 had yet another strong week, up 3.5 percent to 19660, for a bullish marubozu weekly candle. This was the second consecutive up week – and 7th in the last eight. From last October’s low through Friday’s high (19665), the tech-heavy index surged 39.9 percent – and 88.3 percent from the October 2022 low of 10441!
History has shown us time and again that bubbles only get bigger until some catalysts act as a pricking pin. For now, tech bulls seem to be sitting pretty, even though some of the moves defy logic. AAPL’s 7.9-percent jump – was up 11.8 percent at Wednesday’s high – breaking out of $197 resistance was one such event this week. It is a $3-trillion-plus company and is a stock followed by nearly every major brokerage house. Not a biotech company, for instance, that suddenly achieves a major milestone and the stock reacts, AAPL’s business is well known. A double-digit move in a single week in a stock like this is a sign of the ebullient times.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 38.3k, up 3.9k.
For the second consecutive week, small-caps diverged with red-hot large-caps. The Russell 2000 gave back one percent this week, coming on the heels of last week’s 2.1-percent downdraft.
It was a wild week, with a high of 2089 (Wednesday) and a low of 1999 (Friday), closing at 2006 – near the weekly low and at/near dual support.
The small cap index has been trading within a descending channel since May 15th when it tagged 2112; Friday’s low tested that support. The index has also traded above 2000 since early May.
Repeated failure at 2100 since early March raises the odds 2000 will be compromised sooner than later. If this scenario comes to pass, then breakout retest at 1900 is just a matter of time. The Russell 2000 broke out of that level last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 5k, up 126.
Last week, a rising trendline from last December when the US dollar index bottomed at 100.32 was breached intraweek but saved by the end. This occurred again this week as Wednesday’s low of 104.23 would have breached that support but only for bids to show up on time to push the index up 0.3 percent to 105.17.
In the end, dollar bulls managed to save both the trendline in question and horizontal support at 103-104, which goes back to December 2016.
VIX: Currently net short 48.4k, up 7.2k.
VIX dropped as low as 11.88 intraday Thursday, although it did not undercut the May 23rd low of 11.52. When it was all said and done, the volatility index rallied 0.44 points to 12.66 for the week. This does not happen often – going hand to hand with the S&P 500, that is. The two tend to go in opposite directions.
Going back six years, volatility bulls have repeatedly defended 12, and this seems to be happening again. This is taking place at a time when traders are aggressively snapping up calls; the CBOE equity-only put-to-call ratio produced readings of 0.50s in six of the last seven sessions.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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