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Thursday, June 13, 2024 10:54:38 AM
Agriculture Master Report
By: Bill Moore | June 12, 2024
JULY WHT
July Wht continues its roller-coaster ride – breaking $1.00 off winter wht harvest pressure, ideas of a bumper crop & rain forecast for the Black Sea – after rallying almost vertically $1.70 in only 4 wks off very dry conditions in S Russia! The mkt definitely is marching to the beat of its own drum – after totally ignoring the Brazil 20% export tax news that came out last Thur – which rallied corn & beans sharply! As well, last Friday’s news that Turkey was suspending wht imports for 4 months added to wht’s down! But today, a severely oversold July Wht contract is rallying back up over 25 cents in a long-overdue correction!
JULY BEANS
Last Thursday, the Brazil gov’t unloaded a bombshell announcement of a proposed 20% export tax on their producers – which has them – all of a sudden – becoming very tight holders of their beans! Which of course implies better exports for the US! Beans are 87% in (84-avg) & rated a seasonally high 72% gd-ex! The mkt is anxiously awaiting the JUNE WASDE – tomorrow at 11am, the CONAB ESTIMATE on Thur & the CPI & Fed Notes on Wed at 7:30am & 1:00pm! Upcoming heat in the Midwest has prompted the mkt to add some weather premium! At month end, the USDA will issue its QUARTERLY STOCKS & ACREAGE REPORT on 6-28-24!
JULY CORN
Rising temps in the Midwest in the next 2 weeks have corn futures tacking on a weather premium! As well, exports are running 30% over 2023! Last Thur, a flash sale of 152,000mt of corn to unknown was reported! Routinely, Mon inspections & Thur sales are running over 1.0 mmt! Corn is 95% in (avg-95) with a gd-ex rating of 74% – very high for this time of the year! But of course, the crops are made in July/Aug – not now! The mkt is waiting on the WASDE REPORT & CONAB the next 2 days! Todays mkt is almost $2.00 cheaper than a year ago! This price level plus robust exports & sketchy weather coming favor the upside!
AUG CAT
Aug cat has recovered $4.00 of its recent break – feeding off a strong cash mkt & the best demand period of the year (the grilling season) to move above the 200 day moving average! Recurring bird-flu demand concerns have been absent of late – allowing the mkt to rally close to its May Highs! With FATHERS DAY & THE 4TH OF JULY quickly approaching, the “beef aisles” in the supermarkets will be quite crowded!
JULY HOGS
Seasonally, hogs should be trending up now but the above chart tells a different story – as July Hogs have plummeted $19 (111-92) since early April! Even though in a premier demand period, the Hog Mkt has been victimized by severe export woes – leaving the mkt oversupplied first, China stopped buying our pork long ago & now Mexico has devalued their peso – discouraging their imports of our pork as well! The mkt is grossly oversold & is certainly entitled to a correction – but it badly needs a fundamental boost – and a resumption of solid foreign trade would be a good place to start!
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Bill Moore | June 12, 2024
JULY WHT
July Wht continues its roller-coaster ride – breaking $1.00 off winter wht harvest pressure, ideas of a bumper crop & rain forecast for the Black Sea – after rallying almost vertically $1.70 in only 4 wks off very dry conditions in S Russia! The mkt definitely is marching to the beat of its own drum – after totally ignoring the Brazil 20% export tax news that came out last Thur – which rallied corn & beans sharply! As well, last Friday’s news that Turkey was suspending wht imports for 4 months added to wht’s down! But today, a severely oversold July Wht contract is rallying back up over 25 cents in a long-overdue correction!
JULY BEANS
Last Thursday, the Brazil gov’t unloaded a bombshell announcement of a proposed 20% export tax on their producers – which has them – all of a sudden – becoming very tight holders of their beans! Which of course implies better exports for the US! Beans are 87% in (84-avg) & rated a seasonally high 72% gd-ex! The mkt is anxiously awaiting the JUNE WASDE – tomorrow at 11am, the CONAB ESTIMATE on Thur & the CPI & Fed Notes on Wed at 7:30am & 1:00pm! Upcoming heat in the Midwest has prompted the mkt to add some weather premium! At month end, the USDA will issue its QUARTERLY STOCKS & ACREAGE REPORT on 6-28-24!
JULY CORN
Rising temps in the Midwest in the next 2 weeks have corn futures tacking on a weather premium! As well, exports are running 30% over 2023! Last Thur, a flash sale of 152,000mt of corn to unknown was reported! Routinely, Mon inspections & Thur sales are running over 1.0 mmt! Corn is 95% in (avg-95) with a gd-ex rating of 74% – very high for this time of the year! But of course, the crops are made in July/Aug – not now! The mkt is waiting on the WASDE REPORT & CONAB the next 2 days! Todays mkt is almost $2.00 cheaper than a year ago! This price level plus robust exports & sketchy weather coming favor the upside!
AUG CAT
Aug cat has recovered $4.00 of its recent break – feeding off a strong cash mkt & the best demand period of the year (the grilling season) to move above the 200 day moving average! Recurring bird-flu demand concerns have been absent of late – allowing the mkt to rally close to its May Highs! With FATHERS DAY & THE 4TH OF JULY quickly approaching, the “beef aisles” in the supermarkets will be quite crowded!
JULY HOGS
Seasonally, hogs should be trending up now but the above chart tells a different story – as July Hogs have plummeted $19 (111-92) since early April! Even though in a premier demand period, the Hog Mkt has been victimized by severe export woes – leaving the mkt oversupplied first, China stopped buying our pork long ago & now Mexico has devalued their peso – discouraging their imports of our pork as well! The mkt is grossly oversold & is certainly entitled to a correction – but it badly needs a fundamental boost – and a resumption of solid foreign trade would be a good place to start!
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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