Revance Therapeutics Inc (RVNC)

[soma2022]

$65M would be a beat on what I believe are lower whisper numbers with weakening consumer spend numbers/higher CC debt/recession fears looming. Remember that last year they had $54.4M in Daxi/RHA Q2 sales, and $3.7M in Opul Service biz revenue which is no longer. So $66M this Q2 would be 21% growth overall for injectables and I am hearing from Allergan and Galderma reps that Q2 filler sales are weak. Hoping RHA comes in relatively strong compared to Allergan/Galderma filler sales. For this reason, I am targeting RHA at $31M and Daxi at $30M (33% y/y revenue growth and 65% y/y Daxi vial unit growth). Q2 2023 was the first full quarter of Daxi commercial launch so we should have a good apples to apples comparison for vial unit growth.