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Sunday, May 19, 2024 10:31:02 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 25.3k, up 15.6k.
The S&P 500 continued to press higher, up 1.5 percent this week to 5303, having tagged 5325 intraday Thursday. This was the fourth consecutive weekly rise, with the large cap index having bottomed at 4954 on April 19th.
Importantly, equity bulls on Wednesday decisively broke out of 5260s. The S&P 500 peaked on March 28th at 5265. Bears’ small consolation is that how Thursday when the new high was made traded, with the index closing slightly lower with a shooting star. This was followed by Friday’s potentially bearish dragonfly doji/hanging man, but this needs confirmation early next week.
In the event the index comes under pressure, breakout retest at 5260s is key.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 3.2k, down 1.2k.
The Nasdaq 100 peaked at 18465 on March 21st, failing to sustainably break out of 18300s for seven weeks before rolling over; from that high through last month’s low, it swiftly gave back 8.1 percent. All of this loss has now been recovered – and then some.
This week, the tech-heavy index added 2.1 percent to 18546, with a new intraday high of 18670 on Thursday, when the index reversed slightly lower ending with a shooting star. This was followed by Friday’s potentially bearish hanging man. These candles need confirmation early next week.
In the event downward pressure develops in the sessions ahead, 18300s is the one to watch. On Wednesday, when the index rallied strongly post-CPI report for April, intra-session weakness was bought at that level – 18359, to be exact.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 32.1k, down 5.9k.
On Wednesday through Friday, the Russell 2000 (2096) rallied north of 2100 in each session intraday but closed the week just shy of that level. For over two months now, the small cap index has failed to decisively clear 2100, which is important.
The index peaked in November 2021 at 2459, subsequently reaching 1641 in June 2022, which was successfully tested in October of both 2022 and 2023. A 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of that drop lies at 2144. The index lost 2100 in January 2022 and has since struggled at that price point; 2100 also represents a measured-move price target post-breakout at 1900 last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
Inability to reclaim 2100 opens the door toward 2000 at best and 1900 at worse.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2.4k, up 582.
The US dollar index dropped to 103.97 on Thursday, successfully testing a rising trendline from last December when it bottomed at 100.32. It closed the week down 0.8 percent to 104.33. Horizontal support at 103-104 also goes back to December 2016.
A breach of this support is probably just a matter of time. The daily is oversold, and a rally can ensue should dollar bulls succeed in rallying past the 200- and 50-day (104.19 and 104.65 respectively).
VIX: Currently net short 48.1k, up 9.2k.
With a weekly close of 11.99, VIX is dangerously close to a further breakdown. The volatility index has come under pressure since tagging 21.36 on April 19th. This week’s sub-12 close is the first since September 2018.
For the most part, volatility bulls have defended 12 the past six years. As low as the odds are right here and now, it will be yet another victory for equity bulls should 12 gets meaningfully breached.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | May 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 14, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 25.3k, up 15.6k.
The S&P 500 continued to press higher, up 1.5 percent this week to 5303, having tagged 5325 intraday Thursday. This was the fourth consecutive weekly rise, with the large cap index having bottomed at 4954 on April 19th.
Importantly, equity bulls on Wednesday decisively broke out of 5260s. The S&P 500 peaked on March 28th at 5265. Bears’ small consolation is that how Thursday when the new high was made traded, with the index closing slightly lower with a shooting star. This was followed by Friday’s potentially bearish dragonfly doji/hanging man, but this needs confirmation early next week.
In the event the index comes under pressure, breakout retest at 5260s is key.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 3.2k, down 1.2k.
The Nasdaq 100 peaked at 18465 on March 21st, failing to sustainably break out of 18300s for seven weeks before rolling over; from that high through last month’s low, it swiftly gave back 8.1 percent. All of this loss has now been recovered – and then some.
This week, the tech-heavy index added 2.1 percent to 18546, with a new intraday high of 18670 on Thursday, when the index reversed slightly lower ending with a shooting star. This was followed by Friday’s potentially bearish hanging man. These candles need confirmation early next week.
In the event downward pressure develops in the sessions ahead, 18300s is the one to watch. On Wednesday, when the index rallied strongly post-CPI report for April, intra-session weakness was bought at that level – 18359, to be exact.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 32.1k, down 5.9k.
On Wednesday through Friday, the Russell 2000 (2096) rallied north of 2100 in each session intraday but closed the week just shy of that level. For over two months now, the small cap index has failed to decisively clear 2100, which is important.
The index peaked in November 2021 at 2459, subsequently reaching 1641 in June 2022, which was successfully tested in October of both 2022 and 2023. A 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of that drop lies at 2144. The index lost 2100 in January 2022 and has since struggled at that price point; 2100 also represents a measured-move price target post-breakout at 1900 last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
Inability to reclaim 2100 opens the door toward 2000 at best and 1900 at worse.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 2.4k, up 582.
The US dollar index dropped to 103.97 on Thursday, successfully testing a rising trendline from last December when it bottomed at 100.32. It closed the week down 0.8 percent to 104.33. Horizontal support at 103-104 also goes back to December 2016.
A breach of this support is probably just a matter of time. The daily is oversold, and a rally can ensue should dollar bulls succeed in rallying past the 200- and 50-day (104.19 and 104.65 respectively).
VIX: Currently net short 48.1k, up 9.2k.
With a weekly close of 11.99, VIX is dangerously close to a further breakdown. The volatility index has come under pressure since tagging 21.36 on April 19th. This week’s sub-12 close is the first since September 2018.
For the most part, volatility bulls have defended 12 the past six years. As low as the odds are right here and now, it will be yet another victory for equity bulls should 12 gets meaningfully breached.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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