S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 18, 2024

S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 530327 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 476983. This price action here in May is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 532549 intraday and is still trading above that high of 526395.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 523726.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 13th at 532549, which was up 29 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 532549 to 521116. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 532549. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 529174 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 4 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of March at 495356. The fact that the market for April close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. So far here in May this market has held above last month's low reaching 501105. At this time, May has rallied to exceed the previous month's high reaching 532549. This implies we may see a rally into the next turning point on the top line of the Array. So pay close attention.

Critical support still underlies this market at 438504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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