Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

[ap17]

WHEN ON EARTH SHOULD I SELL? 🌎
It’s the most asked question in all of crypto…

When should I sell?

That’s what macro-economic expert Raoul Pal answered in his latest update to investors.


If you’ve been in crypto for long enough, you’ll know that crypto is extremely cyclical.

There’s a 4 year cycle, based around the Bitcoin halving.

seasons4
This 4 year cycle is broken into 4 seasons:

🟩 Crypto Spring

🟨 Crypto Summer

🟥 Crypto Fall

🟦 Crypto Winter

In 3 out of 4 of these seasons, crypto is the best performing asset on earth.

Then in crypto winter, it’s the worst.

On paper, the optimal selling strategy appears obvious:

Exit all of your crypto positions before crypto winter.

Simple, right?

According to Raoul - not quite.

There’s just one problem.

It’s impossible to know when crypto will peak.

“I can't help you with timing the top.”


Raoul Pal
Even if you do miraculously nail the top, there’s a problem:

“Let's imagine you get out roughly right. Within 10% - 20% of the high. Let's say you've turned $100 into $1,000. Now you're waiting for the bear market. I will guarantee you will not put the same amount back in. Because you'll be terrified of losing it… before you know you've actually screwed the whole thing up.”


Raoul Pal
Instead of trying to time the market, here’s Raoul’s personal plan:

“Here's my suggested path for most people... Usually the back part of the year, after the US election there's a screaming pump into the end of the year. My advice? Use that in terms of time and not price. Take maybe 1/3rd off the table for lifestyle chips… Secure your lifestyle, the things that matter to you. Now you've taken all the pressure off. Now I've de-risked my life so I can now run 2025 more intelligently.”


Raoul Pal

Raoul’s predicts that following the US election in November, we’re going to see a huge pump.

The plan?

Take 1/3rd off the table.

Now not only have you taken the pressure off, if there’s a harsh correction, (there always is) you have some dry powder. 💣