The Outlook for Anavex 3-71 and Schizophrenia
Anavex’s initiation of early-stage proof trials of Anavex 3-71 for the treatment of schizophrenia needs to be seriously considered. What if these early trials show that the drug does show treatment efficacy, absent obviating adverse events (serious side effects)? A number of additional factors will then come into play, and must be weighed.
First, the size of the schizophrenia market for a safe, effective, relatively inexpensive drug that can be administered orally. For accuracy, do your own look-up on this market. It’s gigantic; a major unmet medical need.
Next, consider the difficulties in manufacturing, selling, and properly administering Anavex 3-71 for schizophrenia. There are none.
Anavex 3-71 is a small molecule, for which Anavex has demonstrated synthesis processes. The drug can be efficiently and inexpensively manufactured.
Then, unlike many drugs treating CNS diseases, for schizophrenia it will be administered per os, by simply swallowing a pill. No injections. No need for patients to go to medical facilities for intravenous, IV, procedures.
Therefore, the drug can be sold as conveniently as any pill-form prescription drug.
Run your own numbers. How many patients will be taking Anavex 3-71 for schizophrenia? Try running a range of patient purchase prices for the drug. Then, extrapolate those metrics to anticipated annual Anavex 3-71 revenues coming in to Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Then, with the ranges of numbers you determined, ponder if some Big Pharma might be interested in acquiring the sales rights to Anavex 3-71 for schizophrenia. How much might they want to offer Anavex for the drug?
Or, if Anavex chooses to keep everything in-house, eventually, after a few years, after the company has developed (or contracted for) manufacturing and sales rights, what would be the range of annual 3-71 revenues to Anavex Life Sciences Corp.
Finally, as an AVXL shareholder, I’d like some reasonable estimate of the annual dividend dropdown (payout) from the 3-71 revenues.
For myself, on my own spreadsheet, I’ve punched all of these metrics (and their ranges). Should the Anavex 3-71 schizophrenia clinical trials prove successful by the end of summer or this year, my small AVXL holding will make the beneficiaries of my estate, my spouse, children, and designated philanthropies, well rewarded.
Simply, the Anavex 3-71/schizophrenia connection, alone, has the potential of making Anavex Life Science Corp a very profitable enterprise.
