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Saturday, May 11, 2024 11:10:03 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 11, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 9.7k, up 52.8k.
Equity bulls put up another week of strong show, with the S&P 500 rallying 1.9 percent to 5223. This was the third up week in a row. From the April 19th low of 4954 to Friday’s intraday high of 5240, the large cap index is up 5.8 percent, which just about offsets the 5.9-percent decline between last month’s low and the March 28th high of 5265. At Friday’s high, the index was less than 0.5 percent from the March peak.
Amidst this, signs of fatigue are showing up. Volume was anemic this week, and two of the five sessions ended in a doji. If non-commercials are to be believed, it will be a tough sled from here on. These traders, having switched to net long four weeks ago, are now net short e-mini S&P 500 futures.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 4.4k, up 1.6k.
The Nasdaq 100 trudged higher 1.5 percent this week – its third consecutive up week. From the April 19th low of 16974 through Friday’s high of 18248, it rallied 7.5 percent. Before that, the tech-heavy index peaked at 18465 on March 21st, failing to sustainably break out of 18300s for seven weeks before rolling over; from that high through last month’s low, it swiftly gave back 8.1 percent.
Friday – a spinning top session – tech bulls could not quite muster strength enough to test 18300s. The index began the week with a rally past the 50-day on Monday, then struggled to keep up the momentum. The daily RSI is below 59. Ahead, bulls are likely to struggle to save the 50-day.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 38k, down 2.3k.
Small-cap bulls Friday came close to testing 2100, but no cigar. This is an important level.
The Russell 2000 peaked in November 2021 at 2459, subsequently reaching 1641 in June 2022, which was successfully tested in October of both 2022 and 2023. A 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of that drop comes to 2144. The small cap index lost 2100 in January 2022 and has since found stiff resistance at that price point, which also represents a measured-move price target post-breakout at 1900 last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
A decisive takeout of 2100 can give the bulls a much-needed fillip. Until then, they need to defend 2000 and most definitely 1900.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 1.9k, up 1.9k.
Last Friday, the 50-day (now 104.52) was successfully tested. Dollar bulls did build on that this week, but only slightly. The US dollar index rose 0.2 percent this week to 105.18, with an intra-week high of 105.64 on Thursday.
Last week, on May 1st, the index rallied as high as 106.38 but only to retreat. That was the fourth week in a row the index stalled just north of 106. So, for now, this is the area to beat as far as dollar bulls are concerned.
On the downside, breakout retest lies at 103-104, which goes back to December 2016 and was taken out four weeks ago; 104 also serves as trendline support from last December when the index bottomed at 100.32.
VIX: Currently net short 38.9k, up 16.4k.
Volatility bulls better step up soon. VIX is perilously close to horizontal support at 12.30s. The volatility index yielded 0.94 points this week to 12.55. It is now down three weeks in a row. Four weeks ago – on April 19th – it tagged 21.36 and reversed.
Having lost nearly nine points over three weeks, VIX is oversold – way oversold. The daily in particular can rally.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | May 11, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of May 7, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 9.7k, up 52.8k.
Equity bulls put up another week of strong show, with the S&P 500 rallying 1.9 percent to 5223. This was the third up week in a row. From the April 19th low of 4954 to Friday’s intraday high of 5240, the large cap index is up 5.8 percent, which just about offsets the 5.9-percent decline between last month’s low and the March 28th high of 5265. At Friday’s high, the index was less than 0.5 percent from the March peak.
Amidst this, signs of fatigue are showing up. Volume was anemic this week, and two of the five sessions ended in a doji. If non-commercials are to be believed, it will be a tough sled from here on. These traders, having switched to net long four weeks ago, are now net short e-mini S&P 500 futures.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 4.4k, up 1.6k.
The Nasdaq 100 trudged higher 1.5 percent this week – its third consecutive up week. From the April 19th low of 16974 through Friday’s high of 18248, it rallied 7.5 percent. Before that, the tech-heavy index peaked at 18465 on March 21st, failing to sustainably break out of 18300s for seven weeks before rolling over; from that high through last month’s low, it swiftly gave back 8.1 percent.
Friday – a spinning top session – tech bulls could not quite muster strength enough to test 18300s. The index began the week with a rally past the 50-day on Monday, then struggled to keep up the momentum. The daily RSI is below 59. Ahead, bulls are likely to struggle to save the 50-day.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 38k, down 2.3k.
Small-cap bulls Friday came close to testing 2100, but no cigar. This is an important level.
The Russell 2000 peaked in November 2021 at 2459, subsequently reaching 1641 in June 2022, which was successfully tested in October of both 2022 and 2023. A 61.8-percent Fibonacci retracement of that drop comes to 2144. The small cap index lost 2100 in January 2022 and has since found stiff resistance at that price point, which also represents a measured-move price target post-breakout at 1900 last December. Before that, the index went back and forth between 1700 and 1900 going back to January 2022.
A decisive takeout of 2100 can give the bulls a much-needed fillip. Until then, they need to defend 2000 and most definitely 1900.
US Dollar Index: Currently net long 1.9k, up 1.9k.
Last Friday, the 50-day (now 104.52) was successfully tested. Dollar bulls did build on that this week, but only slightly. The US dollar index rose 0.2 percent this week to 105.18, with an intra-week high of 105.64 on Thursday.
Last week, on May 1st, the index rallied as high as 106.38 but only to retreat. That was the fourth week in a row the index stalled just north of 106. So, for now, this is the area to beat as far as dollar bulls are concerned.
On the downside, breakout retest lies at 103-104, which goes back to December 2016 and was taken out four weeks ago; 104 also serves as trendline support from last December when the index bottomed at 100.32.
VIX: Currently net short 38.9k, up 16.4k.
Volatility bulls better step up soon. VIX is perilously close to horizontal support at 12.30s. The volatility index yielded 0.94 points this week to 12.55. It is now down three weeks in a row. Four weeks ago – on April 19th – it tagged 21.36 and reversed.
Having lost nearly nine points over three weeks, VIX is oversold – way oversold. The daily in particular can rally.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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