S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2024

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Clearly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 518100 and overhead resistance forming above at 522481. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 25th at 526485, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of April 15th, which has been a move of 5.775%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of March 25th has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 479330 made back during the week of December 25th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of October 16th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 410378 made the week of October 23rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 510794. Additional support is to be found at 509114. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 18 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of March at 495356. The fact that the market for April close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. So far here in May this market has held above last month's low reaching 501105.

Critical support still underlies this market at 438504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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