S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 11, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened quite strong above the previous session's high 1636279 reaching 1643739 intraday. So far the market is still within a reactionary phase being up two trading days. Therefore, this market closed below the opening print while also closing down from the previous closing yet it was weak going into the close.

Immediately, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 1658534.

Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 1594781. Initial support lies at 1631229. This market has exceeded intraday 2 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 1625890 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Immediately, the projected extreme resistance stands at 1652642.

Additionally, our central point cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing warning that the upward momentum is subsiding. Given the fact that we have made a new high and this study just turned down today, caution is advised that this may prove to be a temporary high and a break of today's low of 1629352 would tend to confirm that possibility. Furthermore, the short-term Stochastics have also signaled a possible crash is likely. During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 1605475 settling at 1634626. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 1616428 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 1625890. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 1629352 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 1616428
Previous... 1605475
Tomorrow... 1625890

This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 1653886. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2009 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 1619786 and overhead resistance forming above at 1634818. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 18th at 1653886, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of April 15th, which has been a move of 7.978%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of March 18th has exceeded the previous high of 1515007 made back during the week of December 25th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 1254386 made the week of October 23rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 1609202. Additional support is to be found at 1592591. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 18 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of March at 1522278. The fact that the market for April close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. So far here in May this market has held above last month's low reaching 1555764.

Critical support still underlies this market at 1405840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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