Option Millionaires

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U.S. 30-year mortgage rates fell to 7.18% in the most recent week, according to the MBA, from 7.29% last week, versus a 23-year high of 7.90% in October and a 6.71% recent trough in December. The rate is well above the 2023 low of 6.18% in February of 2023. The weekly MBA purchase index rose 1.8%, leaving a 15.2% rise from the 28-year low in October. Lending is well below the mid-January peak, leaving a headwind for new and existing home sales into the spring sales season. The MBA purchase index is entering May 0.9% above the April average. Analysts expect a -10% contraction pace for the purchase index in Q2 and a -3% drop for 2024 overall, following a record -30% decline for 2023, and a -21% 2022 drop. The refi index is entering May -0.7% below the April average, leaving a 17-month rise of 41% from the 22-year low average in December of 2022. Analysts expect a 30% growth clip for the refi index in Q2 and a 17% rise for 2024 overall, after a -54% drop for 2023, and a -72% drop in 2022.