Tuesday, May 07, 2024 2:07:04 PM
1) Number 1 is the number of patient starts. I think the Street is looking at around 65 based on Q2 Rev estimates. I think the "whisper number" is a bit higher based on recent price action so 80-90 starts. As I stated before, I am projecting about 115 based on commentary from oncologists postings/videos. My optimistic "hopium" number would be 150+ based on a favorable interpretation of managements comments, but that may be asking too much. I do not think they will give actual revenue guidance until YE for 2025 revenues.
2) Expansion of ATCs beyond the 50 by end of May due to interest from other Cancer Centers. Think this number could be pushed to 60-65 by end of Q3.
3) Any commentary regarding manufacturing success rate compared to the previously stated 90% number provided.
4) Expense burn for Q1 vs $80M-85M expectations (annual guide of $320M-$340M)
5) Any update/change regarding cash runway from H2 2026 which would give an indication of patient ramp relative to internal modeling/expectations. Don't think they will modify that until Q2 ER though.
6) Updates on any clinical trials/pace of enrollments, etc.
Any guidance or projections would certainly be welcome, but I just think it is too early in the launch for them to provide that with any certainty. Anything I missed?
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