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Saturday, May 04, 2024 11:31:16 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | May 4, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 43.1k, down 24.5k.
Equity bulls should be very happy with how things turned out this week. The S&P 500 rallied 0.6 percent but at Thursday’s low of 5011 was down 1.7 percent for the week. That low was bought, with the bulls gapping up the index (5128) on Friday to close out the week at the 50-day (5130). Earlier on Monday, their advance was stopped at that average. In the likely event the average gets taken out next week, the next layer of resistance lies at 5170s.
The large cap index peaked at 5265 on March 28th and the subsequent selling stopped at 4954 on April 19th.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 2.8k, down 3.4k.
Tech bulls got help from both the FOMC and earnings this week (more on this here). On Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell shot down the idea of the possibility of a rate hike (more on this here). Then, March-quarter results from both Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) pleased investors. The rally in the last two sessions culminated in a one-percent gain for the week, which at one point was down 2.4 percent.
When it was all said and done, the Nasdaq 100 (17891) finished just under the 50-day (17927). The tech-heavy index peaked at 18465 on March 21st, failing to sustainably break out of 18300s for seven weeks before rolling over. Before this resistance gets tested, tech bulls will first have to clear 18100, which represents trendline resistance from that high.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 40.3k, up 4.2k.
The Russell 2000 rallied 1.7 percent for the week, but small-cap bulls are probably not happy with how Friday fared; the session gapped up to add 1.9 percent intraday but only to reverse to end up one percent to 2036 – just under the 50-day at 2039.
On a closing basis, support at 2000 was breached both Tuesday and Wednesday, touching 1968 intraday Wednesday. At the same time, the small cap index retreated well before reaching 2100 resistance, ticking 2055 on Friday.
The index remains rangebound.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 35, down 178.
On Wednesday, the US dollar index rallied as high as 106.38 but only to retreat. By Friday, it was down 0.8 percent for the week to 104.92. This was the fourth week in a row the index stalled just north of 106.
Earlier, the index bottomed at 100.32 last December, followed by a takeout three weeks ago of 103-104, which goes back to December 2016.
A crucial test lies ahead. A rising trendline from the December low draws to 104. It is unlikely this support is lost right away. Even on Friday, the intraday low of 104.41 – barely above the 50-day at 104.39 – was bought. That said, the weekly remains way overbought and it is just a matter of time before this trendline is compromised.
VIX: Currently net short 22.4k, up 4.4k.
The last time VIX’s weekly RSI rallied above 70 was March 2020; since then, the momentum metric has struggled to rally above 63. This was also true this time, when it turned back down three weeks ago; this was when the volatility index tagged 21.36 and retreated. VIX fell in the subsequent two weeks, with this week’s close of 13.49 comfortably breaching the 50- and 200-day.
VIX is oversold on the daily, and this could very well be a make-or-break moment for volatility bulls. The index closed the week right on a rising trendline from last December when it ticked 11.81 and rallied. This is a must-save.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | May 4, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 30, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net long 43.1k, down 24.5k.
Equity bulls should be very happy with how things turned out this week. The S&P 500 rallied 0.6 percent but at Thursday’s low of 5011 was down 1.7 percent for the week. That low was bought, with the bulls gapping up the index (5128) on Friday to close out the week at the 50-day (5130). Earlier on Monday, their advance was stopped at that average. In the likely event the average gets taken out next week, the next layer of resistance lies at 5170s.
The large cap index peaked at 5265 on March 28th and the subsequent selling stopped at 4954 on April 19th.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net long 2.8k, down 3.4k.
Tech bulls got help from both the FOMC and earnings this week (more on this here). On Wednesday, Chair Jerome Powell shot down the idea of the possibility of a rate hike (more on this here). Then, March-quarter results from both Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) pleased investors. The rally in the last two sessions culminated in a one-percent gain for the week, which at one point was down 2.4 percent.
When it was all said and done, the Nasdaq 100 (17891) finished just under the 50-day (17927). The tech-heavy index peaked at 18465 on March 21st, failing to sustainably break out of 18300s for seven weeks before rolling over. Before this resistance gets tested, tech bulls will first have to clear 18100, which represents trendline resistance from that high.
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 40.3k, up 4.2k.
The Russell 2000 rallied 1.7 percent for the week, but small-cap bulls are probably not happy with how Friday fared; the session gapped up to add 1.9 percent intraday but only to reverse to end up one percent to 2036 – just under the 50-day at 2039.
On a closing basis, support at 2000 was breached both Tuesday and Wednesday, touching 1968 intraday Wednesday. At the same time, the small cap index retreated well before reaching 2100 resistance, ticking 2055 on Friday.
The index remains rangebound.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 35, down 178.
On Wednesday, the US dollar index rallied as high as 106.38 but only to retreat. By Friday, it was down 0.8 percent for the week to 104.92. This was the fourth week in a row the index stalled just north of 106.
Earlier, the index bottomed at 100.32 last December, followed by a takeout three weeks ago of 103-104, which goes back to December 2016.
A crucial test lies ahead. A rising trendline from the December low draws to 104. It is unlikely this support is lost right away. Even on Friday, the intraday low of 104.41 – barely above the 50-day at 104.39 – was bought. That said, the weekly remains way overbought and it is just a matter of time before this trendline is compromised.
VIX: Currently net short 22.4k, up 4.4k.
The last time VIX’s weekly RSI rallied above 70 was March 2020; since then, the momentum metric has struggled to rally above 63. This was also true this time, when it turned back down three weeks ago; this was when the volatility index tagged 21.36 and retreated. VIX fell in the subsequent two weeks, with this week’s close of 13.49 comfortably breaching the 50- and 200-day.
VIX is oversold on the daily, and this could very well be a make-or-break moment for volatility bulls. The index closed the week right on a rising trendline from last December when it ticked 11.81 and rallied. This is a must-save.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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