S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 4, 2024

S&P 500 Cash Index opened above the previous high and closed above it as well warning of a bullish posture right now. It closed today at 512779 and is trading up about 7.50% for the year from last year's settlement of 476983. This price action here in May is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 513877 and support forming below at 512349. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 25th at 526485, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of April 15th, which has been a move of 3.745%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of March 25th has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 479330 made back during the week of December 25th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of October 16th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 410378 made the week of October 23rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 17 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market has made a low following the previous high of March at 495356. The fact that the market for April close below the previous month's low is a sign of near-term weakness with a possible decline into the next turning point on the Array. So far here in May this market has held above last month's low reaching 501105.

Critical support still underlies this market at 438504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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