NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

Beachhyena,
Exactly. There may be 12K brain tumor patients, but that is only a segment, ie only newly diagnosed brain tumor patients in the UK per year. If USA stats are proportional, there is a 10.6X ratio of patients living with brain tumor to the newly diagnosed per year number. With DCVax-L approval being a watershed moment, the main goal of every patient with a brain tumor will be to try and get treatment.

My speculation of DCVax-L price in the UK is $200K (between $150K to $300K). If there is a pay by injection sales model to accommodate prophylactic use for lesser stage brain tumors and to make this more practical and affordable for insurance purposes, the fully extrapolated price would be closer to $300K.

Once UK is approved, the odds for approval by Canada, USA, Germany/EU/EMA, and ultimately globally, should increase near 99%. My thinking is the early year(s) valuation multiple of sales should also be much higher (to also reflect the unicorn company growth potential), maybe 12 initially.

The USA brain tumor realizable market is over 7X larger than the UK one. With Germany/EU/EMA and Canada, NWBO is amazingly for a small biotech already global. I would think the rest of the world would quickly open up their insurance and markets as well.