Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

Much more similar than WGT bias allows to contemplate. What was the n of the odds ratios Anavex resorted to report for their P2b/3 readout? Whatever that n was, it represents a subgroup of patients and is an outcome measure that deviates from the expected per protocol outcome measures.

ANVS reported on a subset n of 90 using criteria that had not been pre-specified. So no, not pivotal, and not analogous to our 2b/3, either.

The market will rightly punish such readouts. Hobby investors on the other hand will resort to back of an envelope estimates trying to convince themselves of their biotech investor proves spotting something brilliant that the market has overlooked.

Notice how posthoc Anavex have gone away from those odds ratios, dropping the ADL co-primary and combining the other with a secondary endpoint.