Commodity Futures Trading

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Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans, Canola and Palm Oil
By: Jack Scoville | April 23, 2024

• WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat was lower last week and trends remain mixed in all three markets. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue but are apparently getting resolved in the governments favor. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 527, 517, and 510 May, with resistance at 557, 568, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 571, 561, and 556 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 626, 610, and 604 May, and resistance is at 651, 658, and 660 May.

• RICE

General Comments: Rice closed higher again last week and has rallied back to the contract highs. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1818, 1792, and 1778 May and resistance is at 1907, 1916, and 1935 May.

• CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher last week as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 334, and 328 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

• SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1128, 1114, and 1100 May, and resistance is at 1156, 1181, and 1193 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 325.00, and 323.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4360, 4300, and 4240 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

• CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 596.00 May. Support is at 602.00, 594.00, and 588.00 May, with resistance at 621.00, 637.00, and 645.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4970, 3920, and 3860 July, with resistance at 4020, 4080, and 4140 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

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