Lebby is viewed as a con man by a lot more people than just some on this board.
It is amazing he has weaved his way really into prominent positions within the photonics industry, but that he is tolerated and ignored by many who think he is barking up the wrong tree. Feedback from an engineer whose input I received re the wafer picture was devastating. He literally said he doesn't trust anything coming from Michael Lebby, and sees him as someone who just loves to promote himself without showing the industry what they want to see.
Skeptic reader: "What? I have found TP quite annoying but don't think he is being paid to post. Can this really be true?"
It is true. Do your own DD. It IS fascinating that Dr Lebby has reached high levels of visibility in the emerging industry given how so many appear to view him. That's probably because he is effective at pushing the photonics message in general - which benefits them, so he is tolerated.
Folks, the best CON MEN are very slick and polished, and very good at it. That's what makes them the best.
Satire:
Lebby to Marcelli before Antwerk: "Hey Jim what can I tell the to keep them excited? I've been trying to let them know this it taking longer but I don't want to face an angry crowd"
Marcellit: "Just say Tier1 a whole bunch of times and let them know we have talked with -- I'm mean are working with - them and totally focused on that. That should hold them over."
Lebby: "But what if someone brings up the bonus miss last year and whether it is an even bigger tell than my 6 months guidance?"
Marcelli: "Damn it, I still can't believe Bucci and Leonberger did that after all we did for them in 2021!. Busts my chops -- THE FCKRS! Don't worry Michael. Just keep saying Tier1 and don't forget to smile and put up the jigglies. You work on the gang there and I'll work on the gang here..saw a beaut in Malibu and I gots to have it! "
Folks, look at the EVIDENCE: It's devastating and it is staring you in the face - blatantly misleading messaging in each of the last 3 ASMs.
*ASM 2021: The 2019-->2020-->2021--> COMMERCIALISM Polymer Plus. slide at ASM 2021 along with saying they are in the Piloting phase and manufacturing is next, and that they were already working with foundries and to look for "partnering for mass commercialization" with nary a hint that it would not happen imminently. He KNEW otherwise.
*ASM 2022: Leading investors to expect complete PDKs by the end of the calendar year, only to be told later in the year that there is a whole "back-end" process that is part of the PDK that they need to work, which they are still working on to this day. He KNEW otherwise.
*ASM 2023. The "commercial acceptance deal" with a still unnamed company that was used to avoid discussing the foundry work goals they had set and even claimed 6 months prior were still "on track". Why has he STILL not named Polariton - a company supplying devices to universities, ie not real products in the marketplace? Why didn't we know about a 200mm wafer still not fabricated sucessfully? Ready for commercialization? He KNEW otherwise
What will the 2024 ASM message be ? This is how CON MEN operate. Who can dispute this?
I'm calling Marco out now for the 11th time for refusing to admit he was wrong to say Dr Lebby didn't mislead investors about the timeliness and always had 2024-2025 in mind. It doesn't look good for his credibilty,
Now, to OpenLight: GP posted their latest update which shows amazing - near 400Gpbs ability using crystals, and not EOP.
KCC responds by saying OpenLight said last fall they were "working towards" adding in EOP. The actual statement KCC made about this previously was simply that they had "discussed" polymers. Discussing and "working" aren't near the same. Saying you discussed something has little weight. Then KCC diverts to irrelevant mentioning of some other foundry that has nothing to do with OpenLight.
Folks, REAL companies are known for their actual partnerships and real achievements - like OpenLight. Look at their website and announcements. Compare to Lightwave. 40 ndas currently? If anyone really is excited about that I call the company out for violating SEC laws: You can't legally privately share anything that can affect the share price. And if it is true I'm 99% certain it isn't anything other than a paper they make everyone sign before they talk to them. No big deal..pun intended
Lastly, for those excited about "stability is not an issue", stability isn't reliability. It isn't scalability. It isn't necessarily yields, or insertion loss, etc. He dazzles with incomplete responses that the naive swallow.
If NONE of the above convinces you, consider the simplest way to see the TRUTH here:
The real questions that are simplest to answer never get answered. They don't need evasive questions in return, or "non-verbal" 'cues".
Just be straight with your own shareholders:
1. What reliability data is still being requested and when will it be available?
2. What scalability is being requested and when will it be available?
3. When do you anticipate a working demo with a transceiver company that a prospective end user can finally see and test, instead of in-house research for a transceiver company to look at over the next 5 months?
DISCLAIMER: The above are my opinions which I based on reality. Anyone is free to have a different opinion. That's what makes things interesting and hard to look away sometimes..
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