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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 20, 2024

The NY Gold Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high. The broader rally has peaked with the last high established at 24488 back on 04/12 5 days ago. Up to now, we have not yet elected any Bearish Reversals from that high. Clearly, this high was formed after a rally of 42 days.

Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 2.35% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 24646, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 24453 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 23868 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23792 and overhead resistance forming above at 24148. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. Afterwards, the market bounced for 8 weeks reaching a high during the week of April 8th at 23217. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a sharp move of 4.434% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 19964 as it has fallen back reaching only 23402 which still remains 17.22% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 16752 and 26568. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of April 8th has exceeded the previous high of 20832 made back during the week of January 29th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 19964 made the week of February 12th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19860 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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