Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[tedpeele]

Newcomers, the LATEST: Antwerp & Tier1s, PDKs, Polariton & first commercial deal real meaning

First, who am I? I'll let others speak for me:

StevenDice said this morning:

tedpeele, who is excoriated here to no end, has been far closer to reality than anyone stating otherwise. That is an obvious fact at this point

LOVELWLG said yesterday:

You guys can beat up on Ted all you want but he stated right after last years ASM that no more deals will be signed this year and nothing will develop from the commercially accepted deal.

Some question my price predictions but their memory is faulty..not worth going into. Overall the price has followed my expectations, and there is more pain to come.

Why have I been so accurate? Because I don't have a dog in this fight. I never committed much money and I"m very curious because they ARE claiming so much - so I dig for the real truth. That's the reason and no other. Some say I'm working for others but the simple fact that after my 1x a day restriction no-one has popped up and started posting 15x a day to "keep the short agenda going" has put that to rest for good.

Ok, let's get to it:

Antwerp (I'll resist the good pun.. :):

The main takeaway apparently was this:
Speckie wrote:

He just finished. Important take away we are working with multiple tier ones, tripled since a few weeks after OFC , wow we are golden. He showed a slide of the “ eyes” will be on the site as well. This was a real promising speech! Reliability is NOT an issue! Look at the eyes!

First, the 'eyes' are not new, but they obviously are something of value since the company demonstrated them at OFC. They show a good signal. But again, not new.

Reliability. Did he simply say it is "not an issue"? Because whether you like the word "issue" or prefer "challenge" the REALITY is that Dr Lebby said that reliability is holding off deals. So, ok, let's say nothing has been shown to be unreliable and all that remains is Lightwave needed to show "MORE DATA". Did anyone ask what needs to be shown still, and how long that will take? KCC said there are MANY reliability tests, and one can see them all in a book that costs over a freakin $700! Isn't it possible that the REASON they are requesting more tests is that Lightwave has cherry-picked the reliability tests they have run and shown? IF you don't like that, then again what is the holdup?


Re "working with multiple tier ones".

1. Dude and others have pointed out that this a really convenient excuse for why things are taking so long, and Dude even said Dr Lebby is a "master" at buying time. He points out that Dr Lebby showed a slide at ASM 2023 with 18 months as the time from start to "deal" and 18 months should be about now.

REALITY CHECK: 18 months was 5+ years ago because slide 39 is the funnel showing 18 months, and as Dr Lebby was going through that slide he said he started in 2017! Tier1 "working with" as LOVELWLG also pointed out is virtually meaningless, as he said they were claiming the same in 2010.

ANOTHER REALITY CHECK: if the number tripled since OFC, then the 18 months for all of the new ones just started!

2. What does he mean by "working with"? Herwig put up a slide and the heading under which was the Tier1s was "Types of Visitors". So, some visited (perhaps the demo at OFC?) and have sat across the table, and agreed to stay in touch. Is that what Dr Lebby means by "working with"? Did anyone there bother to ask what Dr Lebby meant by "working with"? In another post Herwig wrote: "Obviously I don't know how far those discussions have progressed." Right. Nor where they stand. IF anyone did ask, they didn't get a good answer, and it comes down to trust again. Herwig later wrote: "therefore, we must trust the management...Let's hope..." TRUST and HOPE. Dr Lebby LOVES to hear shareholders use those words...


Dead on Arrival asked simply:

Was there a Q&A after his presentation?

Even LWLG101, of all people, wanted to know if they got any answers to the important questions about where things really stand. And GP asked the big one: "Do you have a transceiver partner currently packaging your modulators into their devices?"

Nobody answered DOD and LWLG got Herwig's reply above. And you KNOW if they got an answer to Pumpkins question THAT would be the narrative and not more esoteric Tier1 stuff.

Surely some questions were asked about how much more reliability testing, and what they have to do to show scalability, and do they have consistent yields, and have they really shown 200Gpbs on foundry-produced modulations, no? But so far no-one has reported anything of any real significance except perhaps Lewrock who wrote without explanation:

8,600 transceivers are on track to ship in Q4, 2024.

Perhaps Dr Lebby said this? As I wrote the other day this just means nothing at this point because Dr Lebby also said they were "on track" to meet all of their 2022 ASM goals in the Dec 19,2022 letter. We KNOW they didn't meet those goals. No partners were announced (ie by name), no tech license, and we NOW KNOW they didn't even have single successful 200mm wafer by ASM 2023. So his word about being "on track" has no credibility anymore.

It sounds to me like Antwerp yielded exactly what was expected: Nothing other than a new excuse for why the Dec 4 letter was wrong about near term commercialization. First, we are told it was because potential customer are asking for more info on reliability and scalability. Now we are told it's because they are focusing on Tier1s, and they obviously take a lot longer.

People like Scope keep the faith, as Scope wrote: "Good faith investors viewed it as a positive step"

Jeunke just reported that they are going to keep the information amongst themselves. Newcomers, they don't recognize that YOU have the most control of the price at this point, and the price decline from August is because you aren't convinced they have what they say they have or that they do what they say they will do. The Europeans have decided to keep info to themselves, thus shooting themselves in the foot if they really had something that the market would like. The fear that shorts will twist the info or make fun of it. But I've been here long enough to know that it is a ruse. Confident people don't hide. - they share in order to bring in more buyers to provide support. But they know they don't have anything. It is more "winking and smiling and putting fingers in the air, or pausing a certain way", instead of coming clean with the truth. This behavior disgusts me.


Don't you guys who have been in the stock a while ever get tired of the run-around?

Well, some did. If you look at the PRICE ACTION after the meeting - volume increased and the price tanked. Some good sized sells. More to come imo..



OK, on the PDKS. I pointed out that the 10k STILL says they are in development, and has yet to verify that any are qualified. This is not surprising since they led everyone to believe they would be finished by year end 2023, and we found out later that there is something called a "front end" PDK and a "back end PDK", and the back-end involved a lot of work that they hadnt' done by year end 2023.

PDKs must be qualified as complete for anybody to use them with a foundry.

Zebra responded by saying

PDKs are always "in development" and have been for years throughout the industry by all serious designers. Michael Hochberg was talking about this several years ago. They are created to suit individual client needs. This never stops.

Wow. SO, I watched Michael Hockberg video. I recommend EVERYONE HERE do so. It shows just how early on this whole photonics integration really is...so complex...but he didn't mention PDKs at all. Let's get real. In ASM 2021 Michael talked about the need to get into foundry PDKS, which once you do so that is a stamp of approval of the ability to scale to high volume. Qualification-one of the goals he refused to address at ASM 2023. He - and the 10k - have yet to confirm that PDK acceptance of Lightwave technology has happened.

NOBODY SHOULD EXPECT ANY COMMERCIALIZATION UNTIL A PDK QUALIFICATION USING LIGHTWAVE TECH IS ANNOUNCED.



Now, on to Polariton and the first announced "commercial deal" at ASM 2023.

KCC writes as though the ASM 2023 deal was with Polariton without question, and I agree with him.

Killercliff pointed out: :

If we aren't interested in making deals with the small guys and we've been working with Tier 1s for more than a year why did we make the first commercial deal that is still so obscure?

And Lurker gives a possible answer:

An unknown entity not worthy to make public.

But the REALITY is far more sinister than that:

The real intriguing question is WHY HAS THE COMPANY NEVER SAID SO? The answer is obvious when you think about it: IF they had said so then, it would have undermined the message that they have hit the big time with Tier1 companies. Polariton offers PLASMONICS which even KCC admits is years away from commercialization. So why buys those devices? Universities, for research. They aren't really products with an end use, as far as what I see. Some here have come around to agree with me that this was a manipulative technique used by the company to placate angry shareholders. And it worked. It took a full 3 months before the reality started to sink in. And they STILL haven't named the company..they want the last few shareholders who believe it could be with a bigger company to keep hanging on. After all, how does it benefit them to admit this was a meaningless deal?


KCC has put up a couple of posts but they are of the theoretical type - you know, LWLG is on the cutting edge of EOP and EOP is going to be needed in the future. How nice of him to say this:

I’ll ask about yields at the May meeting for you).

You see, KCC has said he is in no hurry. For EOPs it is widely known that efficiency is the achilles heel. Better to just dream of rainbows for now, why rain on the Europeans parade? After all, he is SURE the issues are small, and will be resolved. Just as he was 5 years ago...

Lastly, PROTO, of all people, actually had a semi-thoughtful post that wasn't a cut and paste:

Consider the fact that Lebby did not have 100% knowledge that he would be successful and having LWLG technology 100% ready for Mass commercialization on large Foundry 200 mm wafers 1 year ago

Yes, consider that, and consider the fact that proto himself expected lots of deals by year end 2023. Proto is so forgiving!

Newcomers the fact is that this company leads its shareholders to think that the technology is far more ready than it is - year after year.

It KNOWINGLY MISLEADS shareholders because it NEEDS THE MONEY to keep the doors open. WHAT? KNOWINGLY? Well, we now KNOW that Dr Lebby knew they didn't have 200mm wafers at ASM 2023 yet talked of "commercial acceptance" as though all had been proven and they were strictly in the deal making, contract signing phase, and at most all that remained was showing the reliability data. We now KNOW they hadn't even gotten any tech to work on ONE 200mm wafer? How can any shareholder not feel decieved by that?

Go back to 2021 and you have Dr Lebby saying they are now in Foundrys, in the Piloting stage (which is directly followed by Manufacturing), and showing a slide with 2019-->2020-->2021-->COMMERCIALIZATION Polymer Plus on it and speaking of "partnering for mass commercialization" as though it was all happening in 2021! Is this just my retro-intepretation? No. Shareholders here KNOW that it was this very misleading picture that enabled the stock price to go nuts and the company to go to Nasdaq and the top 2 in management to each take home $2.6 in cash bonuses, all the while KNOWING that it would be YEARS before they might have a viable product. Which reminds me, I am now calling out Marco for 9th time as refusing to acknowledge the error of his claim that way back in 2021 Dr Lebby told us of the 2024-2025 timeline, won't quote me, but responds primarily with generalizations. At least he tries, though. This failure/reluctance to even address my points only serves to solidify in my mind the idea that there really aren't very good answers to my points and that I'm hitting the mark.

You see, Newcomers, TRUST and CREDIBLITY are the manipulative concepts the company has relied on to keep the naive shareholder support for well over a decade. The second thing they rely on is the complexity of the technology and keeping shareholders in the dark about where they really stand.

And, from the reports so far, Antwerp is just more of the same.

Good luck. I expect a painful year for Lightwave shareholders from here on out. Since I can't' post as often as I'd like it may take a while longer for the truth to be reflected in the share price than I originally predicted, as I said there was a 90% chance we'd see 2's in April. But, IMO, with another song and dance like what just happened at Antwerp, it only further confirms that it is coming and it won't be pretty.

All of the above is my opinion, and certainly could be wrong. Everyone here should do their own DD.

You may want to start be reviewing the 50 reasons to be skeptical that I presented here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174225579

Or the 31 questions that longs do their best to avoid answering here: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174232127

Ted