Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc (IOVA)

[GMH*]

I assume you intended to say Q2 and Q3. There will be minimal revenue in Q1 since TIL revenue is only recognized upon infusion which would occur at around day 34 post surgery which puts the first patient into Q2. There will probably be some revenue as ATCs stock IL-2 in preparation, but think that will be minimal... maybe $4-5M.

Your Q2 numbers are aligned with what I have at about 90-120 patient starts. Your Q3 numbers implies a total billings of 360-480 patients. That does seem high to me but would be 2.4-3.2 patients per ATC per month, so not impossible. IOVA indicated an annual total spend of $320M-$340M (which would include manufacturing costs) or $80M-85M per quarter, your numbers would make IOVA extremely profitable at Q3. I hope your numbers are correct, but just wanted to temper expectations a bit.

As an aside, the 12 analysts tracking IOVA do have them as break-even by 2026, which I think is very conservative. Break-even is the holy grail for any biotech as it means limited dilution risk. Break-even should occur at about 160-170 patients per quarter or a little over 1 patient start per ATC (assuming 50 ATCs) per month.