Bigworld, It looks like the Middle East tensions could start subsiding, with both sides looking to back away from the precipice. Last night the S+P 500 futures tanked to near 4950, then recovered by morning, so I'm thinking that was most likely the near term bottom for the stock market. Time will tell, but I decided to move back up to 28% with the stock allocation, so will try to hold on to that for the recovery.
Fwiw, my strategy for this year is evolving into a Core / Flex approach, with 12% as the Core LT buy / hold, and the rest (~16%) as 'Flex', which can be traded depending upon market conditions. I'm hoping to not have to trade very much, but will take profits as they build up if it's clear the market will be tanking, as happened recently. This drop was pretty easy to see coming, and looks like the rest of the year could be choppy.
I figure there will be 5 main factors (below), with the geopolitical side hopefully fading in relative importance. It looks like Fed policy may no longer be a big plus for a while since they are moving away from their dovish narrative. So the economic / inflation numbers and corporate earnings will need to be decent. Meanwhile the election uncertainty will provide a queasy background vibe. Anyway, I'm hoping for an oversold bounce in the weeks ahead, and then probably a choppy market for the remaining year. Just a guess though..
- Fed Policy
- Corporate Earnings
- Economic / Inflation
- Geopolitical
- Election
---
