I do not think the company will give any guidance until the Corporate Update for 2025 (next Feb). I think they will only report out actual starts (thru end-April for Q1, end-July for Q2, etc) which does give some clarity for next quarters' revenue.
In regards to my estimate, since there is no new data, I have revised my starts to about 115 thru April 30. This is based on the following assumptions:
1) Linear ramp based on starts thru Feb (approximately 1.55 patient starts per ATC per month) for the 30 existing ATCs (assuming no adds from the 6 additional ATCs thru April)
2) Fred's comments upon approval and re-iteration during Cowen fireside that the 20 patients were "a tiny fraction of the bolus".
3) Build of of the iCTC for a capacity of 2,000 (165/month) plus a vendor back up because they did not want to end up in a situation similar to the CAR-T roll out where initial demand outstripped capacity.
4) ATCs investment in time and resources (200 hours for the lead physician + support staff training plus infrastructure) is a big commitment from the Cancer Centers so they would expect some demand before committing to becoming an ATC.
The Q2 analyst revenue projections are 5.2M (low), $28.6M (average) and $60.6M (high). This equates to about 10, 58 and 122 starts thru April. We are already way over the 10 thru Feb and only an additional 38 to get to the average. I am confident that we will blow away those 2 and should be closer to the top-end. I was playing that expected pop using some options, but this continued weakness may not hit those strikes even with a substantial beat.
This weakness continues to surprise me. I will probably add some additional lower strike options right before earnings if this weakness/lower level continues.
