Zebra, PDKs and reliability are not "cherry picked non-events" that I have "created".
These are measurable REQUIREMENTS for commercialization.
The 10K says PDKs are still in development.
Dr Lebby himself said reliability issues are the reason commercial deals aren't happening.
Zebra you aren't being serious or honest. You asked my for evidence and I gave it to you.
If you were serious you wouldn't dismiss my in-depth reply with one sentence that is so far off anyone here can see it. Instead you would take each of my points and examine whether they are truly just "cherry-picked" from my mind and not in the "real world". You would look at how reasonable and likely each of my points are. And, you would examine the reasons I gave for longs thinking commercialization is very near, and my rebuttal to those reasons.
KCC thinks the PDKs basically done, if I read him correctly. And he minimizes the reliability concern also - preferring to call them challenges instead of issues, as though that matters.
KCC has been way too optimistic for years here. He minimizes the delays. He is averse to looking at the possibility that something is holding this up and could hold it up for another year, or maybe even forever.
I'm not averse to looking at the facts. PDK status is a fact. Reliability status is a fact. The company has said neither is ready for prime time. It's not even up for debate. THE ONLY DEBATABLE ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAR OFF THEY REALLY ARE.
That's where the big picture comes into play: Can the company's word be trusted? Are they acting in good faith?
Nrdc92, I don't know how any intelligent person such as yourself is unable to see intentional deception in the messaging over the years. I really don't. Do I need to repeat them?
How can the ASM 2021 message of 2019-->2020-->2021-->commercialization Polymer Plus and the "next step" being "partnering for mass commercialization" in retrospect have been just an honest mistake by the man who is the roadmap author?
How can the ASM 2022 message of "PDK results" by year end have unintentionally left out the entire ALD puzzle and front-end/back-end discussion?
And - dear Lord - how can the ASM 2023 message of "commercial acceptance" when he KNEW they still hadn't gotten a foundry to produce a wafer of modulators on 200mm be seen as anything other than intentional misguidance?
I really would like to know how you interpret this as just bad business.
I know that WANTING TO BELIEVE can be intoxicatingly strong, but I have always challenged this board to face reality because that's how we all make money and avoid losing it. The reality is that if they really were close to commercialization - they would make that crystal clear because these guys are world class level at raising shareholder expectations. Instead we see the opposite and because he painted himself into a corner in the Dec 4 letter he had to later admit that there are impediments to closing deals. Then with ASM 2024 only a couple of months off he tells us "6 months of demos" are coming. That folks, is what is called a "TELL".
I get lots of negative imogi's and almost no counter arguments. Almost nobody will quote me and then analyze what I've said. Even Marco, who by the way I am now calling out for 8th time as refusing to acknowledge the error of his claim that way back in 2021 Dr Lebby told us of the 2024-2025 timeline, won't quote me, but responds primarily with generalizations. At least he tries, though. This failure/reluctance to even address my points only serves to solidify in my mind the idea that there really aren't very good answers to my points and that I'm hitting the mark.
AI
