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Re: Elroy Jetson post# 109978

Thursday, 04/18/2024 11:15:37 PM

Thursday, April 18, 2024 11:15:37 PM

Post# of 110152
When I look at that machine why do I get the distinct impression this contraption will look like ENIAC in 50 years and the average human will be about as useful since we adapt generationally at a ~10X slower rate.

We were by an earlier account about seven iterations of Moore's Law from computing systems possessing the capacity of the human brain. That's ~10-15 years. The software to train these systems takes longer but that report was over 25 years ago. Bill Joy famously predicted this about the same time. We may be nearing an inflection point. Global warming, fascism, (again), and AI mostly in control of corporations that see fascism as a good thing.

Investors should be careful, there are some massive unknown unknowns in our near future and no one in our government or our media has an incentive to analyze it. No one gets elected who delivers bad news and no one in the media gets paid serious money to produce serious news.

Like the nuclear bomb, how do we use this super-human ability? We don't have an excellent history of good decisions and I don't see anyone with standing trying to manage and bound the development of AI within a human rights and political democracy model. We'll see but I don't have high hopes.

Rule #1, Don't lose money. Rule #2, read rule #1. - WB.

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