Commodity Futures Trading

[DiscoverGold]

Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans, Canola and Palm Oil
By: Jack Scoville | April 16, 2024

• WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday in range trading. Trends remain mixed in all three markets. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 539, 537, and 527 May, with resistance at 568, 575, and 580 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 571, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 634, 625, and 618 May, and resistance is at 650, 655, and 660 May.

• RICE

General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher yesterday as the long liquidation by the funds is now complete. Futures were a little weaker at points during the week in reaction to the USDA supply and demand reports, but the rebound from the fund selling was more important. USDA cut domestic demand a lot but increased export demand for increased ending stocks levels. USDA also increased world ending stocks estimates for the year. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives of 1748 May. Support is at 1800, 1778, and 1725 May and resistance is at 1850, 1870, and 1907 May.

• CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher yesterdAY as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. The USDA supply and demand reports showed reductions in Corn ending stocks in line with trade expectations but still over 20 billion bushels. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 344, 339, and 334 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

• SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower and Soybean Meal closed higher last week in response to the USDA supply and demand estimates that showed a greater increase in US ending stocks than the market had anticipated. South American production estimates were little changed. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1166, 1152, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1181, 1193, and 1207 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 336.00, 330.00, and 325.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 35=7.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4520, 4420, and 4360 May, with resistance at 4730, 4830, and 4980 May.

• CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week in sympathy with the price action in Chicago and on demand concerns. It wqs lower today on ideas of demand weakness. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the USDA reports that showed plenty of oilseeds viable in the US and the world and on price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 617.00 and 596.00 May. Support is at 620.00, 616.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 637.00, 645.00, and 652.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4110, 4040, and 3920 July, with resistance at 4180, 4220, and 4300 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast

Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold