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Tuesday, April 16, 2024 12:05:48 PM
Softs Report: Cotton, OJ, Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa
By: Jack Scoville | April 16, 2024
• COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher to relieve oversold conditions from weaker demand ideas. The export sales report showed poor dales once again. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 77.20 May. Support is at 81.70, 80.80, and 79.30 May, with resistance of 86.20, 88.20 and 91.40 May.
This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 8 5 7 8
• FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and remains at the top edge of a trading range. The move came in reaction to the latest USDA reports that showed less production. Florida production is now estimated at 18.8 million boxes, from 19.8 million last month. Reports of tight supplies are around. Florida said that Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet, so a range trade has been seen. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 353.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.
• COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed sharply higher yesterday and both show up trends on the daily and weekly charts. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is starting now.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 223.13 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 214.00, 210.00, and 208.00 May, and resistance is at 235.00, 238.00 and 241.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 4090 May. Support is at 3840, 3760, and 3700 May, with resistance at 4000, 4030, and 4060 May.
• SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday and trends are down on the charts as the market seems to have supplies available for sale. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1950 July. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1940 July and resistance is at 2050, 2100, and 2150 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 567.00 August. Support is at 579.00, 574.00, and 568.00 August, with resistance at 600.00, 608.00, and 617.00 August.
• COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday and trends are up. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1,301 tons, down 26.7% from the previous year. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 11890 May. Support is at 10380, 10000, and 9630 May, with resistance at 11200, 11320, and 11440 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8570, 8080, and 7930 May, with resistance at 9320, 9440, and 9560 May.
Read Full Story »»»
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By: Jack Scoville | April 16, 2024
• COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher to relieve oversold conditions from weaker demand ideas. The export sales report showed poor dales once again. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 77.20 May. Support is at 81.70, 80.80, and 79.30 May, with resistance of 86.20, 88.20 and 91.40 May.
This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 8 5 7 8
• FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and remains at the top edge of a trading range. The move came in reaction to the latest USDA reports that showed less production. Florida production is now estimated at 18.8 million boxes, from 19.8 million last month. Reports of tight supplies are around. Florida said that Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet, so a range trade has been seen. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 353.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.
• COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed sharply higher yesterday and both show up trends on the daily and weekly charts. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is starting now.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 223.13 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 214.00, 210.00, and 208.00 May, and resistance is at 235.00, 238.00 and 241.00 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 4090 May. Support is at 3840, 3760, and 3700 May, with resistance at 4000, 4030, and 4060 May.
• SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday and trends are down on the charts as the market seems to have supplies available for sale. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1950 July. Support is at 2000, 1980, and 1940 July and resistance is at 2050, 2100, and 2150 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 567.00 August. Support is at 579.00, 574.00, and 568.00 August, with resistance at 600.00, 608.00, and 617.00 August.
• COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday and trends are up. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1,301 tons, down 26.7% from the previous year. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 11890 May. Support is at 10380, 10000, and 9630 May, with resistance at 11200, 11320, and 11440 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 8570, 8080, and 7930 May, with resistance at 9320, 9440, and 9560 May.
Read Full Story »»»
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Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
• DiscoverGold
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