This looks like a full wave correction that almost always lasts 3 months. That places the drop to end around 6/1 to 6/15. It also assumes a very shallow drop from 5/1 to 6/1-15. So far, the worse of the drop should be here soon followed by a steady but slow drawdown. It also implies that JUNE Fed meeting will be positive for stocks. I can't currently see that scenario, but the chart looks best if it fit that pattern. This implies that the FED will lower rates in June meeting. If they do not lower rates or suggest strongly, they intend to at the next meeting after we could be seeing a decent drop and a fast one at that.
I wish i had a better handle on the move but in the final euphoric phase of the bull run it becomes very hard to figure out. The best-case scenario is a market that reverses higher in mid-June on. That would imply the final last wave structure is here. Like i stated before it is a pure guess at this stage and in the past few years the pattern has been to always rebound from any deep drop almost immediately. The ONLY difference is that we have lived in a higher borrowing environment for much longer than anything seen in the recent past.
Even BITCOIN seems like it is consolidating from a normal corrective phase. The street seems complacent here, so a little shakeup only puts it back on its heels.
The universal consensus is that earnings window will be the best in a long time going forward. The banks always kick off earnings season and it usually causes most of the angst. We are in that window today. Morphing into anything more damaging is possible but for me unlikely.
