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Monday, 04/15/2024 9:15:57 AM

Monday, April 15, 2024 9:15:57 AM

Post# of 364056
The Empire State index
The Empire State index bounced to a still-weak -14.3 in April from -20.9, leaving the measure further above the 4-year low of -43.7 in January and the prior 3-year low of -32.9 in January of 2023, but well below the -2.4 figure in February and the 1-year high of 10.8 in April of 2023. The ISM-adjusted Empire State bounced more modestly, to 45.7 in April from 45.3, leaving that measure further above the 4-year low of 39.7 in January that was last seen in the lockdown month of May of 2020. The index remains well below the 48.1 figure in February and the 9-month high of 55.0 in April of 2023. Today's Empire State bounce leaves sentiment still fluctuating in contraction territory, after falling from lofty peaks in November of 2021 to a trough in January of 2024. The ISM-adjusted average of the major sentiment surveys is likely to sustain the April drop-back to 48, after bouncing to 49 in February and March from a 4-year low of 46 in January. Analysts saw a 62 all-time high in November of 2021. Analysts expect a 48 average in Q2, as seen in Q1, after 2023 averages of 49 in Q3 and Q4, and 48 in Q1 and Q2.

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