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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 13, 2024

This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed higher. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 24488. Therefore, this market has rallied over the past 42 trading sessions. Nevertheless, this market remains well above all seven of our intial support levels. Meanwhile, this market's closing at this time has been the highest during this 42 day rally. This certainly warns that we can still see higher highs ahead from here. It will take a closing below 23506 to signal a decline is unfolding. This market is trading above our normal trading envelope which resides at 23549 suggesting it is strong and still in a breakout position. Moreover, this market is quite strong for now trading above all 8 technical support levels. Additionally, this market is very strong while our projected overhead resistance stands at 24687 and 24813.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 23557 and overhead resistance forming above at 23845. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 8th at 24488, which was up 8 weeks from the low made back during the week of February 12th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 24488 to 23217. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 24488 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 24488. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 23792 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 21446 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 19860 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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