S&P 500 & Nasdaq Analysis and Trends

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S&P 500 Index (SPX) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 13, 2024

S&P 500 Cash Index closed today at 512341 and is trading up about 7.41% for the year from last year's settlement of 476983. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 5 months going into April suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in S&P 500 Cash Index, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The S&P 500 Cash Index has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 1974 moving into 2024. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the S&P 500 Cash Index, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 517987 and support forming below at 511448. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 25th at 526485, which was up 22 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 23rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 514606. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2022 while the last high formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2022 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the S&P 500 Cash Index has been in a bullish phase for the past 12 months since the low established back in March 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 438504 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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