GOLDBUGS AMEX Goldbugs Index (GOLD)

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Gold into the April/May Target
By: Marty Armstrong | April 12, 2024

Gold has been primarily rising since the April 1st Israeli attack on Iran. Everyone is waiting for retaliation from Iran with the expectation that this will lead to a Middle East War. We still see that the target for April should produce an ideal high intraday and perhaps fall back to retest support for the ECM on May 7th. The primary threshold of resistance stands at the 2453.88 area, and we need to see a weekly closing above this level to imply a further ahead. An April high on a blow-off rally has resistance at 2627.39, 2822.79, and 2839.70. However, that does not appear likely just yet.

Caution is needed now, for this is often when people rush in to buy the high after a 7-month strong rally. Pay attention to the Daily and Weekly arrays at this time. Projections in price are NOT infallible. What tends to be more reliable is always the timing targets. Here, you can see that the top of this breakout channel stands at this 2453 zone. This indicated that the market is not running away at this time and has been trading within expected parameters. Also, look at the stochastic. It is at the top rather than the bottom, also suggesting that we are in a near-term topping-out pattern.

The FALSE MOVE appears to be shaping up. The market has sucked in a lot of people, and they expect it to just blast off. This is how a market will trap everyone. We do NOT want a high on May 7th, and April has been the target for the entire year. Let's see if we now get the FALSE MOVE after this high and then set the stage for the real rally with war.

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