GulfSlope Energy Inc (GSPE)

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Seasonal demands look favorable for oil producers at this time.

‘Global Oil Demand In Summer Months of 2024’ - OPEC Featured Article, released April 11, 2024

https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/res/pdf_delivery_momr.php?secToken2=accept

In 2024, global oil demand is expected to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, y-o-y, led by robust demand from non-OECD regions, mainly China, Middle East and Other Asia. On a quarterly basis, global oil demand is expected to grow by around 2.0 mb/d, y-o-y, in 1Q24, 2.2 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q24, 2.7 mb/d y-o-y in 3Q24 and 2.1 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q24.

In the upcoming summer months, and focusing on transportation fuels, global demand for jet/kerosene is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2Q24 and by 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 3Q24. At the same time, demand for gasoline and diesel is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d and 0.2mb/d, y-o-y, respectively, in 2Q24. In 3Q24, gasoline demand is forecast to improve further and expand by 0.8 mb/d, while diesel is projected to increase by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y.

In OECD, the upcoming driving season in the US is expected to provide the usual additional demand for transportation fuels. Economic activity is also expected to pick up in 2H24, supported by a likely more accommodative monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in 3Q24, as fears of inflation risks subside. Overall, OECD Americas is forecast to lead demand growth in the region with around 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2Q24 and same in 3Q24, while oil demand in OECD Europe and Asia Pacific is expected to also rise, albeit only slightly in both quarters.

In non-OECD countries, China is projected to drive oil demand, supported by strong mobility and industrial activity, growing by 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2Q24 and 0.7 mb/d, y-o-y, in 3Q24. Similarly, the Middle East is forecast to expand by 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2Q24 and 0.5 mb/d, y-o-y, in 3Q24. India’s oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2Q24 and 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y in 3Q24. Other Asia and Latin America are also expected to see healthy growth in the range of 0.2 mb/d–0.4 mb/d, y-o-y, on average in 2Q24 and same in 3Q24.

On the refining side, global crude intakes have declined since the start of the year despite a slight recovery in March. Intakes fell to 79.5mb/d in February, and in March they were still 2.4 mb/d lower compared with the peak level of 82.1 mb/d seen in December 2023 (Graph 2). Refinery runs declines were mostly in the US, China, Russia and Europe on the back of severe weather, seasonality and weakening refining margins. In March, however, refinery intakes improved slightly, with a gradual capacity return in the US and rising demand in select Asian countries.

In the US, gasoline markets on the Gulf Coast strengthened on tightening gasoline availability, elevated octane prices (a gasoline blending component), and a positive outlook for summer gasoline demand. In Europe, ongoing geopolitical tension could further intensify upward pressure on regional diesel markets. Meanwhile, Asia has so far remained well supplied amid strong refinery runs, particularly in India, and product supplies from the Middle East.

Expected growing demand for gasoline and diesel in the Atlantic Basin is expected to establish stronger East-to-West export opportunities for these products. Moreover, strong near-term upside potential for residual fuel in Southeast Asia is expected to add strength to Asian product markets. Jet/kerosene markets are projected to show solid upward potential across regions in the coming months as air travel picks up.. Demand for naphtha, however, may remain soft, amid new capacity additions despite projections for robust gasoline blending demand in the coming months. Outside of the US, propane could become the preferred petrochemical feedstock on the back of stronger margins.

The robust oil demand outlook for the summer months warrants careful market monitoring, amid ongoing uncertainties, to ensure a sound and sustainable market balance. To this end, the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) will remain vigilant, proactive and prepared to act, when necessary, to the requirement of the market.