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Tuesday, April 09, 2024 11:01:05 PM
Best Six Months Rally Respite Underway April Tracks Election Year Seasonality
By: Almanac Trader | April 9, 2024
It’s been a banner “Best Six Months (BSM)” (November-April) for the Dow and S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through our April 2, 2024 Seasonal MACD Sell Signal), DJIA gained 16.6%, S&P 500 20.1% – double the historical average BSM gains. These big gains have not left much on the table until later this year.
Risks are more elevated now. Sentiment continues to run high. Valuations are extended. Geopolitical tensions have not eased. And persistent inflation pressures have the Fed in no rush to cut rates. As the election campaign rhetoric heats up and the Best Six Months comes to a close, we are shifting to a more cautious stance.
As you can see in the chart of April 2024 compared to election year Aprils since 1950 the market is tracking the softer election year April pattern.
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DiscoverGold
By: Almanac Trader | April 9, 2024
It’s been a banner “Best Six Months (BSM)” (November-April) for the Dow and S&P 500. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 9, 2023, through our April 2, 2024 Seasonal MACD Sell Signal), DJIA gained 16.6%, S&P 500 20.1% – double the historical average BSM gains. These big gains have not left much on the table until later this year.
Risks are more elevated now. Sentiment continues to run high. Valuations are extended. Geopolitical tensions have not eased. And persistent inflation pressures have the Fed in no rush to cut rates. As the election campaign rhetoric heats up and the Best Six Months comes to a close, we are shifting to a more cautious stance.
As you can see in the chart of April 2024 compared to election year Aprils since 1950 the market is tracking the softer election year April pattern.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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