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Gold New Record High but Faces Potential Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | April 9, 2024

• Gold reached a new record high but faces potential resistance at a Fibonacci confluence zone, increasing chance of a retracement.

Gold looks to have stalled on Tuesday, following a new record high of 2,365 reached earlier in the session. It hit a potential resistance zone yesterday, based on Fibonacci confluence. The confluence zone shown on the chart is confirmed by more Fibonacci levels than any previously identified resistance zone since the rally began.

That is, since gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern on February 29. In other words, gold is at the greatest risk of a retracement since the breakout. When more indicators identify a similar price zone the potential significance of that price zone increases. In addition, it may end the day with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern.



Move Above 2,365, Says Rally is Not Over Yet

Nevertheless, if a decisive rally above today’s high of 2,365 triggers, higher prices will be in sight. The next higher price targets are at 2,386, followed by a Fibonacci confluence zone from around 2,404 to 2,421. The first level completes the target from a large rising ABCD pattern that is extended by the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio. It is interesting to note that there is a potential double top in the relative strength indicator (RSI) momentum oscillator. In addition, the oscillator is the most overbought since the summer of 2020.

8-Day Moving Average First Support Zone

If a pullback is in the plans before a new record high, then the first confirmation of weakness should be seen on a drop below today’s low of 2,337. There waw a quick pullback last week, but gold quickly bounced off support around the blue 8-Day MA. Certainly, it could do so again.

Currently, the 8-Day line is at 2,297. The 8-Day MA has done a good job of reflecting dynamic support for the current sharp rally. Nevertheless, given the aggressive move seen in the rally, a test of support around the 20-Day MA would not be a surprise. It is currently at 2,221. Or the uptrend line between the two moving averages could see support.

Following a correction gold is expected to continue to strengthen. It recently broke out of a three and a half year basing period and strength was confirmed with a new high monthly close. This means that the current uptrend is still in its early stages.

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