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Tuesday, April 09, 2024 1:14:42 PM
Softs Report: Cotton, OJ, Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa
By: Jack Scoville | April 9, 2024
• COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed yesterday, with nearby prices a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts on concerns about the planting intentions report released a week ago and despite improving ideas of demand potential from China. Demand has been weaker so far this year. USDA said that 10.7 on acres might get planted this year, from 10.2 million last year. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been reduced from previous levels in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. USDA said that Cotton is now 5% planted, from 3% last week, 5% last year, and 6% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 86.00, 83.20, and 77.20 May. Support is at 86.10, 85.60, and 82.90 May, with resistance of 91.30, 92.90 and 94.30 May.
• FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday and remains in a trading range. Reports of tight supplies are around. Florida said that Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet, so a range trade has been seen. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 353.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.
• COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London was mixed to higher and both show up trends on the daily and weekly charts. Trading was quiet. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil will start next month. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 205.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 208.00, 201.00, and 195.00 May, and resistance is at 213.00, 216.00 and 219.00 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3600, 3480, and 3360 May, with resistance at 3830, 3860, and 3890 May.
• SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2150, 2080, and 2040 July and resistance is at 2220, 2250, and 2260 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 613.00, 610.00, and 595.00 August, with resistance at 630.00, 636.00, and 647.00 August.
• COCOA
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday and continued to consolidate the massive gains from the recent rally. A short term top is possible but far from guaranteed. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1,301 tons, down 26.7% from the previous year. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 9000, 8410, and 8730 May, with resistance at 10120, 10240, and 10360 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 7500, 6860, and 6500 May, with resistance at 8690, 8840, and 8960 May.
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DiscoverGold
By: Jack Scoville | April 9, 2024
• COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was mixed yesterday, with nearby prices a little higher and deferred months a little lower. Trends are still down on the daily and weekly charts on concerns about the planting intentions report released a week ago and despite improving ideas of demand potential from China. Demand has been weaker so far this year. USDA said that 10.7 on acres might get planted this year, from 10.2 million last year. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been reduced from previous levels in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and near normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. USDA said that Cotton is now 5% planted, from 3% last week, 5% last year, and 6% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down with objectives of 86.00, 83.20, and 77.20 May. Support is at 86.10, 85.60, and 82.90 May, with resistance of 91.30, 92.90 and 94.30 May.
• FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday and remains in a trading range. Reports of tight supplies are around. Florida said that Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet, so a range trade has been seen. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 353.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.
• COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London was mixed to higher and both show up trends on the daily and weekly charts. Trading was quiet. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil will start next month. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 205.50 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 208.00, 201.00, and 195.00 May, and resistance is at 213.00, 216.00 and 219.00 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3600, 3480, and 3360 May, with resistance at 3830, 3860, and 3890 May.
• SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2150, 2080, and 2040 July and resistance is at 2220, 2250, and 2260 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 613.00, 610.00, and 595.00 August, with resistance at 630.00, 636.00, and 647.00 August.
• COCOA
General Comments: New York was lower and London was higher yesterday and continued to consolidate the massive gains from the recent rally. A short term top is possible but far from guaranteed. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Ivory Coast arrivals are now 1,301 tons, down 26.7% from the previous year. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 9000, 8410, and 8730 May, with resistance at 10120, 10240, and 10360 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 7500, 6860, and 6500 May, with resistance at 8690, 8840, and 8960 May.
Read Full Story »»»
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