Commodity Futures Trading

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Grains Report: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Oats, Soybeans, Canola and Palm Oil
By: Jack Scoville | April 9, 2024

• WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat was a little higher in slow trading with little fresh news yesterday. Trends turned up in SRW but remain mixed in HRW and Spring The USDA reports released a week ago were considered friendly. USDA said that All Wheat plantings would be about 47.5 million acres, with the big reductions seen in Winter Wheat. In contrast, Spring Wheat plantings were above the trade guesses at 11.335 million acres. Inventories were just above the average trade guess and 1.083 billion bushels. The weekly condition report a week ago showed good conditions and the weekly export sales report was poor. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get Scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 590 and 618 May. Support is at 560, 539, and 537 May, with resistance at 575, 580, and 584 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 595, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 646, 640, and 634 May, and resistance is at 660, 677, and 681 May.

• RICE

General Comments: Rice closed mixed in quiet trading yesterday. Futures turned sideways after the big move lower. Trends are mixed in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turning drier and warmer in the US this week and fieldwork should become active.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1602, 1588, and 1576 May and resistance is at 1670, 1704, and 1751 May.

• CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little higher in quiet trading as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. This might not be true as it is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now. USDA issued its first crop progress report for Corn early last week. The USDA reports released more than a week ago showed inventories and planting ideas below trade expectations. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 448, 459, and 463 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 328, 322, and 316 May, and resistance is at 349, 353, and 359 May.

• SOYBEANS

General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower and Soybean Meal closed a little higher. Soybean Oil was lower. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1165, 1153, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1211, and 1217 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 340.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4730, 4690, and 4640 May, with resistance at 4980, 5000, and 5030 May.

• CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on profit taking but found support from strong export data for the month from private sources. It was higher today n strong exports and rallies in the Crude Oil futures. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was a little lower. There were reports of good growing conditions in Argentina. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 630.00, 616.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 645.00, 652.00, and 657.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4460 and 4650 June. Support is at 4270, 4200, and 4130 May, with resistance at 4440, 4460, and 4490 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

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