Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

You may be right or you may be lulling yourself into a false sense of wgt.

Lots of great biostatisticians and other experiences employees have joined companies that both fail and success over time with drugs and different indications. Failure to get approval could still happen even with the best of statistical finessing, simply because the results are not strong enough.

I think there is a chance of approval from the P2b/3 AD trial, although at present I can't say how small or big because clearly the trial results were not a 'slam dunk' at all! Assigned 85% chance of approval is foolish at this point, as I and others have explained reasons for. The chance of approval will improve the further through the CHMP process we advance and can be assessed at each point as more information becomes available.

Its good that Kun Jin is there to navigate the statistical avenues. Ensuring solid SAPs and influencing future trial designs for appropriate statistical power etc. is an essential capacity to have for a biotech - Anavex clearly didn't have that prior to Kun Jin joining.

Kun Jin will likely still have his retirement job at Anavex if A2-73 fails to get EMA approval and will be working on other trials, whereas WGT $AVXL investors might have lost more money.