Alternative Path

[gdl]

Market obsessed fixated and down right determined to get what it wants this June. Rate cut. Can you imagine such a strong labor market receiving a rate cut when GDP is very strong wages rising and manufacturing back in positive territory? I mean let’s get real. In the off chance the Fed does find an excuse to lower rates what do you think happens as a response? Lower economic activity or higher? incentive to accelerate economic activity beyond the 3% To encourage inflation to run higher?

June was my first possible crash date but I gave that small odds. Now however if the data shows strong labor wages and nagging high inflation and the Fed does not declare cuts off the table we could have an ideal crash situation.

No one believes me when I say the market needs rate cuts as opposed to wants it. Lots of long term borrowing could see defaults. Lots of assays depend on lower rates. Surprised economists are oblivious to this.

Let the continued data determine which is on track.