The stupidity of human nature makes anticipating repetitive responses a sure thing. Rate Cut when the economy is surging? Manufacturing is solidly in the black along with all aspects of economy. Can you imagine having a rate cut here? Like pouring gasoline to a fire. I do marvel at the ability of fantasy optimism to catch on so easily and quickly.
Ask yourself how it is possible for economists.to declare a New Paradigm in the late 1920's and see only strong profits as far as the eye can see? Then to be wrong in such a degree is simply astonishing. You would think that the great depression didn't happen on a whim, on a late-night discovery. Surely the forces behind the depression were lurking and visible. Surely economists must have been able to see this as a strong possibility. And all the other crashes? In particular the Pandemic. To this day all those experts and current prognosticators that declare the sky is clear and profits will accelerate from here are the same ones that never saw a crash even AFTER the Pandemic was clearly spreading.
The news on the RSI indicator has never been wrong so far. It declares a solid strong upside for next 10 months. I can't deny its track record but, in my assessment, it can only happen with interest rates, bond yields, dollar not much higher than we have it today. That means MY expectations have to be tempered on inflation till next year. MY scenario would not allow rates to spike any higher and have a solid bullish move on Wall Street. I await the inflation data to see if I am wrong on the timing.
