Alternative Path

[gdl]

Just the data and market predictions on this post. Current inflation and economic activity strongly suggest there will be NO RATE CUTS in June. Bond yields should start the next cycle higher. Data points to accelerated recovery in manufacturing. There is an RSI Indicator that seems pretty foolproof. A reading over 50 for 80 consecutive days has never seen the stock market lower 12 months out! The reading hit the 80-day mark in mid-January of this year implying next year by middle of January we should be higher than we are now. It also suggests a 15% or higher move in that time span. In other words, it is smooth sailing Up and away. Could be explosive year.

The record on this one technical indicator has been 100 percent accurate so far. 12 months out has ALWAYS seen a strong result from start to finish. There can be weakness in between but the drops will be short lived. Calling for a giddy explosive year.

If my understanding of this ending super cycle timeline is accurate, we might not get a decent drop in June thru August. We might instead continue ever higher till early next year. With the street anxious about the need for rate cuts and the election cycle I personally find this scenario hard to swallow. BUT I have been misreading the mental/emotional score for years. If the street already discounts a TRUMP win it seems like the Pandemic acceptance. ONLY after the crap hit the fan did the market react. That also means Trump antics in November when he wins will be ignored as just talk. January inauguration with a minimum 30-day grace period if not longer, the RSI Indicator can be accurate.

Can you imagine another 12 plus months of calm profitable complacent market reaction? What a spike move that would make.