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Saturday, March 30, 2024 10:07:54 AM
CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 30, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 169.4k, down 24.7k.
Yet another week and yet another high! Up 0.4 percent this week, Thursday saw the S&P 500 post a new intraday high of 5265, with a weekly close of 5254.
This follows equity bears’ inability last week to take advantage of back-to-back weekly candles with long upper shadows – one a spinning top and the other nearly a gravestone doji. These potentially bearish candles did not confirm as the bulls pressed on. A rising trend line from last October was also defended last week (more on this here).
The large cap index has now rallied in 18 of the last 22 weeks. From the low of last October through Thursday’s high, it added 28.3 percent. Not surprisingly, conditions are overbought. The last time the weekly RSI at 79 was as overbought was January 2020, when the index peaked the next month for a sharp five-week drop.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net short 7.1k, up 18.3k.
Non-commercials have switched to net short. They had been net long since last August. This comes on the heels of the Nasdaq 100 pretty much marking time in March. Yes, the tech-heavy index rallied 1.2 percent in March but began the month by tagging 18333 on the 1st. This week, it dropped 0.5 percent to 18254, with a new intraday high of 18465 on the 21st.
Immediately ahead, there is short-term horizontal support at 18000. Just underneath lies the 50-day (17835), which coincides with the daily lower Bollinger band (17824).
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 21.5k, up 8.1k.
Bulls managed to pull off what they have had trouble achieving the past two years. The Russell 2000 closed the week above 2100, tagging 2135 on Thursday and ending at 2125, up 2.5 percent for the week. In March 2022, the index touched 2138 and headed lower. Small-cap bulls obviously hope things do not end similarly this time around.
In fact, horizontal resistance at 2100 goes back to January 2021. This level also represents a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. Closing above this level could potentially act as a morale-booster. In the end, it all boils down to flows. It remains to be seen if this week’s action helps draw in new funds.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 629, up 1.3k.
Up 0.3 percent this week, the US Dollar Index enjoyed its third consecutive up week. Earlier, it bottomed at 102.30 on March 8th. This week, dollar bulls failed to cling on to Friday’s intraday high of 104.67, closing at 104.49.
Resistance at 103-104 goes back to December 2016. Closing above this level should give the edge to the bulls. With that said, technical conditions are getting extended here.
In the meantime, for the first time since June 2021, non-commercials have switched to net short.
VIX: Currently net short 43.9k, down 888.
Last week, a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 was breached. This week, Monday’s rally attempt in which the volatility index touched 13.57 was faded, followed by the trend line providing resistance on Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the event volatility comes under more pressure in the sessions ahead, the March 21st bullish hammer during which VIX ticked 12.40 intraday is worth watching.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
By: Hedgopia | March 30, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 26, 2024.
E-mini S&P 500: Currently net short 169.4k, down 24.7k.
Yet another week and yet another high! Up 0.4 percent this week, Thursday saw the S&P 500 post a new intraday high of 5265, with a weekly close of 5254.
This follows equity bears’ inability last week to take advantage of back-to-back weekly candles with long upper shadows – one a spinning top and the other nearly a gravestone doji. These potentially bearish candles did not confirm as the bulls pressed on. A rising trend line from last October was also defended last week (more on this here).
The large cap index has now rallied in 18 of the last 22 weeks. From the low of last October through Thursday’s high, it added 28.3 percent. Not surprisingly, conditions are overbought. The last time the weekly RSI at 79 was as overbought was January 2020, when the index peaked the next month for a sharp five-week drop.
Nasdaq (mini): Currently net short 7.1k, up 18.3k.
Non-commercials have switched to net short. They had been net long since last August. This comes on the heels of the Nasdaq 100 pretty much marking time in March. Yes, the tech-heavy index rallied 1.2 percent in March but began the month by tagging 18333 on the 1st. This week, it dropped 0.5 percent to 18254, with a new intraday high of 18465 on the 21st.
Immediately ahead, there is short-term horizontal support at 18000. Just underneath lies the 50-day (17835), which coincides with the daily lower Bollinger band (17824).
Russell 2000 mini-index: Currently net short 21.5k, up 8.1k.
Bulls managed to pull off what they have had trouble achieving the past two years. The Russell 2000 closed the week above 2100, tagging 2135 on Thursday and ending at 2125, up 2.5 percent for the week. In March 2022, the index touched 2138 and headed lower. Small-cap bulls obviously hope things do not end similarly this time around.
In fact, horizontal resistance at 2100 goes back to January 2021. This level also represents a measured-move target of a 1700-1900 range breakout on December 13th. Closing above this level could potentially act as a morale-booster. In the end, it all boils down to flows. It remains to be seen if this week’s action helps draw in new funds.
US Dollar Index: Currently net short 629, up 1.3k.
Up 0.3 percent this week, the US Dollar Index enjoyed its third consecutive up week. Earlier, it bottomed at 102.30 on March 8th. This week, dollar bulls failed to cling on to Friday’s intraday high of 104.67, closing at 104.49.
Resistance at 103-104 goes back to December 2016. Closing above this level should give the edge to the bulls. With that said, technical conditions are getting extended here.
In the meantime, for the first time since June 2021, non-commercials have switched to net short.
VIX: Currently net short 43.9k, down 888.
Last week, a rising trend line from December 12th when VIX bottomed at 11.81 was breached. This week, Monday’s rally attempt in which the volatility index touched 13.57 was faded, followed by the trend line providing resistance on Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the event volatility comes under more pressure in the sessions ahead, the March 21st bullish hammer during which VIX ticked 12.40 intraday is worth watching.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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